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Florida State
Florida State returns 20% of last season's minutes and rates #89 on offense and #92 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.5 to +14.0.
Why we have them here
Florida State's preseason projection of +6.8 (No. 90 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +4.4, about the +3.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 75 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.4, about its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.5. It returns 20% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (42%). The projection leans most on Anthony Robinson II (+3.1), Sebastian Rancik (+2.2) and Kameron Taylor (+1.5); the newcomer who matters most is Anthony Robinson II, a transfer from Missouri, at +3.1. Its 80% range, -0.5 to +14.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 19% · Transfer 53% · Freshman 22% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 214 | Anthony Robinson II | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Missouri | 24 | +5.2 | +3.1 |
| 406 | Sebastian Rancik | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Colorado | 23 | +3.8 | +2.2 |
| 690 | Alex Steen | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Florida State | 20 | +2.6 | +1.3 |
| 693 | Kameron Taylor | G | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | UNC Asheville | 27 | +2.2 | +1.5 |
| 843 | Shon Abaev | G | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Cincinnati | 16 | +2.2 | +0.9 |
| 1147 | Marcis Ponder | C | 6-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +1.5 | +0.3 |
| 1523 | Martay Barnes | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1619 | Jasen Lopez | G | 5-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1656 | AJ Swinton | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Florida State | 13 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1853 | Collin Paul | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1976 | Brandon Bass Jr. | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 1986 | Amare Robinson | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 1986 | Xavier Osceola | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2085 | Jalen Crawford | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Florida State | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 2164 | JD Jones | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2164 | Elise Assui | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2355 | Cooper Schwieger | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Wake Forest | 16 | -0.7 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Florida A&M #336 | +11.6 | 83% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Troy #155 | +10.7 | 81% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Florida #1 | -11.3 | 18% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | +10.2 | 79% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Ball State #153 | +10.1 | 79% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Green Bay #281 | +14.3 | 88% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  UNC Asheville #245 | +13.3 | 86% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  West Florida #304 | +9.8 | 78% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Tennessee #13 | -16.8 | 9% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Dayton #74 | +4.8 | 65% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Texas A&M #31 | -6.1 | 31% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Jacksonville #253 | +13.4 | 86% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Houston #8 | -10.5 | 20% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +13.0 | 85% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Syracuse #71 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  California #115 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Stanford #69 | conf | -5.3 | 34% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  North Carolina #54 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Wed Jan 20 | vs |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Clemson #46 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  NC State #36 | conf | -8.5 | 25% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Miami #18 | conf | -11.8 | 17% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Clemson #46 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Duke #2 | conf | -17.3 | 8% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs |  Louisville #7 | conf | -8.2 | 26% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +7.0 | 71% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Virginia #19 | conf | -12.7 | 15% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Boston College #114 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Miami #18 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
Projected margin is from Florida State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.