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Syracuse
Syracuse returns 13% of last season's minutes and rates #101 on offense and #43 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.7 to +16.2.
Why we have them here
Syracuse's preseason projection of +8.9 (No. 71 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +7.0, more than the +5.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 89 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.0, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 13% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Gavin Doty (+3.8), Amarri Monroe (+3.2) and Garwey Dual (+3.0); the newcomer who matters most is Gavin Doty, a transfer from Siena, at +3.8. Its 80% range, +1.7 to +16.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 13% · Transfer 75% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 148 | Gavin Doty | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Siena | 27 | +5.6 | +3.8 |
| 195 | Amarri Monroe | F | 6-7 | 4 | Transfer | Quinnipiac | 24 | +5.3 | +3.2 |
| 208 | Garwey Dual | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | McNeese | 22 | +5.5 | +3.0 |
| 630 | Luke Wilson | C | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | App State | 19 | +2.9 | +1.4 |
| 704 | Francis Folefac | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Siena | 21 | +2.5 | +1.3 |
| 823 | Aiden Tobiason | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Temple | 24 | +1.9 | +1.1 |
| 992 | Tasman Goodrick | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Siena | 12 | +1.8 | +0.6 |
| 1041 | Sadiq White Jr. | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Syracuse | 11 | +1.7 | +0.5 |
| 1865 | Ryan Moesch | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2006 | Mark Morano Mahmutovic | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2127 | Ethan Butler | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2181 | Noah Lobdell | G | 6-0 | 2 | Returning | Syracuse | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 |
| 2203 | Mark Morano | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.3 | -0.1 | |
| 2357 | Calvin Russell III | G | 1 | Returning | Syracuse | 3 | -1.7 | -0.1 | |
| 2475 | Abdramane Siby | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.7 | -0.1 | |
| 2475 | Iker Martinez | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.7 | -0.1 | |
| 4129 | Kiyan Anthony | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Syracuse | 10 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  New Haven #326 | +17.8 | 93% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Central Connecticut #316 | +17.8 | 93% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | N |  Indiana #55 | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  St. John's #21 | -13.2 | 14% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Cornell #109 | +10.6 | 80% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Lafayette #342 | +19.5 | 94% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  UAlbany #293 | +16.9 | 91% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | -11.0 | 19% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Colgate #197 | +13.9 | 87% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Mercyhurst #239 | +14.9 | 89% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Canisius #346 | +19.7 | 95% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Providence #49 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Binghamton #330 | +18.5 | 93% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Florida State #90 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +8.9 | 76% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Duke #2 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Miami #18 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Louisville #7 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Boston College #114 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  North Carolina #54 | conf | +1.6 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Stanford #69 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  California #115 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Virginia #19 | conf | -3.3 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 06 | N |  Rutgers #102 | +2.7 | 59% | |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  Clemson #46 | conf | -5.4 | 33% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Stanford #69 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  SMU #53 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs | Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
Projected margin is from Syracuse's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.