Teams › A-10 · Compare Dayton with another team
Dayton
Dayton returns 50% of last season's minutes and rates #88 on offense and #57 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.6 to +16.0.
Why we have them here
Dayton's preseason projection of +8.8 (No. 74 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +5.1, about the +4.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 68 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.4, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.8. It returns 50% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (42%). The projection leans most on Amaël L'Etang (+3.8), Keonte Jones (+2.5) and Travis Perry (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is Travis Perry, a transfer from Ole Miss, at +1.7. Its 80% range, +1.6 to +16.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 49% · Transfer 36% · Freshman 10% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 122 | Amaël L'Etang | F | 7-1 | 2 | Returning | Dayton | 23 | +6.5 | +3.8 |
| 357 | Keonte Jones | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Dayton | 25 | +4.0 | +2.5 |
| 477 | Travis Perry | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Ole Miss | 17 | +3.9 | +1.7 |
| 604 | Jaiun Simon | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Dayton | 19 | +3.1 | +1.4 |
| 710 | Landen Joseph | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Marshall | 16 | +2.8 | +1.1 |
| 1251 | Malcolm Thomas | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Dayton | 9 | +1.0 | +0.2 |
| 1524 | Grant Randall | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Quinnipiac | 24 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 1535 | Cody Peck | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.3 | +0.0 |
| 1683 | Zaide Lowery | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Marquette | 15 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1750 | Damon Friery | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Dayton | 6 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1847 | Aiden Derkack | G | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1979 | Tristian Ford | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 1979 | Jaron McKie | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2060 | Makai Grant | G | 6-1 | 3 | Returning | Dayton | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 2195 | Jalen Haynes | F | 6-8 | 5 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2225 | Will Maxwell | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Dayton | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| 2268 | Evan Dickey | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Dayton | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| 2920 | Julian Washington | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.7 | -0.3 |
| 3522 | Sean Pouedet | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Dayton | 5 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  NJIT #347 | +20.1 | 95% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Northern Illinois #333 | +18.6 | 93% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Siena #208 | +13.0 | 86% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Cincinnati #42 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Central Michigan #259 | +15.2 | 89% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Utah #72 | +0.0 | 50% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Northwestern #79 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Memphis #100 | +2.6 | 58% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Loyola Maryland #344 | +19.8 | 95% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Florida State #90 | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  South Florida #83 | +7.2 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | +12.8 | 85% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Liberty #150 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Wed Dec 23 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | +15.8 | 90% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  La Salle #218 | conf | +10.4 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Davidson #132 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +8.9 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Saint Louis #56 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Richmond #136 | conf | +7.9 | 74% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  St. Bonaventure #126 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Fri Jan 22 | vs |  VCU #44 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Duquesne #156 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Fri Jan 29 | vs | Saint Louis #56 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at | Loyola Chicago #166 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Fordham #125 | conf | +2.3 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Duquesne #156 | conf | +8.9 | 76% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  George Washington #119 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Fri Feb 19 | vs |  Saint Joseph's #129 | conf | +7.4 | 73% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  George Mason #107 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Rhode Island #148 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | George Washington #119 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Fri Mar 05 | at | VCU #44 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
Projected margin is from Dayton's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.