Roster Math

Teams › SWAC · Compare Bethune-Cookman with another team

Bethune-Cookman

Bethune-Cookman returns 57% of last season's minutes and rates #215 on offense and #224 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.6 to +4.9.

-2.3
Rating · #220 of 365
-1.4
Offense · #215
-1.0
Defense · #224
-9.6 to +4.9
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-16
Projected record · 9 to 19 wins
12-6
Projected in SWAC · 8 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Bethune-Cookman's preseason projection of -2.3 (No. 220 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.2, about the -1.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 259 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.0, about its neighbours' -0.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.5. It returns 57% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Jakobi Heady (+2.9), Koron Davis (+0.2) and Jameel Morris (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Koron Davis, a transfer from Alabama A&M, at +0.2. Its 80% range, -9.6 to +4.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 54% · Transfer 43% · Other newcomer 3%

Jakobi Heady+2.9
Koron Davis+0.2
Jameel Morris+0.0
Quentin Heady-0.2
Jaylen Jones-0.2
Melian Martinez-0.2
William Gonzalez-0.2
Trayvon Barbary-0.2
Reggie Ward Jr.-0.4
David Onanina-0.4
IJ Ezuma-0.4
Dailon Minor-0.4
Seneca Willoughby-0.7
Rickey Mitchell Jr.-1.0
Jordan Johnson-1.1
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
302Jakobi HeadyG6-63ReturningBethune-Cookman29+4.0+2.9
1366Koron DavisG6-72TransferAlabama A&M25+0.4+0.2
1654Jameel MorrisG6-13TransferAlcorn State23+0.0+0.0
1959Quentin HeadyF6-62ReturningBethune-Cookman20-0.3-0.2
2098Jaylen JonesG6-03TransferJacksonville21-0.4-0.2
2288Melian MartinezC7-01TransferLouisiana Tech12-0.7-0.2
3004William GonzalezG6-61ReturningBethune-Cookman4-2.2-0.2
3351Trayvon BarbaryG6-42ReturningBethune-Cookman4-2.8-0.2
3445Reggie Ward Jr.F6-63Other newcomer7-2.1-0.4
3693Seneca WilloughbyG6-33ReturningBethune-Cookman19-1.4-0.7
3777David OnaninaC6-83ReturningBethune-Cookman6-2.7-0.4
3856IJ EzumaF6-85TransferSouthern Miss6-2.8-0.4
4272Dailon MinorG6-11ReturningBethune-Cookman4-4.3-0.4
4866Rickey Mitchell Jr.G6-43ReturningBethune-Cookman10-3.8-1.0
4927Jordan JohnsonG6-43ReturningBethune-Cookman12-3.8-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NFurman #110-4.336%
Thu Nov 05atTexas Tech #15-22.34%
Sat Nov 07atGrand Canyon #59-15.211%
Wed Nov 11atSan Diego State #81-13.913%
Wed Nov 18atCreighton #41-17.88%
Wed Nov 25atRichmond #136-8.924%
Sat Nov 28atSan Francisco #189-6.331%
Sat Dec 05atMarshall #247-5.134%
Tue Dec 08atVirginia #19-22.14%
Thu Dec 17atIowa #33-18.07%
Sun Dec 20atNorth Texas #135-8.325%
Tue Dec 22atFlorida State #90-13.015%
Tue Dec 29atCincinnati #42-18.07%
Sat Jan 02atFlorida A&M #336conf+2.357%
Sat Jan 09atGrambling #302conf+1.555%
Mon Jan 11atSouthern #235conf-2.941%
Sat Jan 16vsMississippi Valley State #365conf+19.694%
Mon Jan 18vsArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf+10.079%
Sat Jan 23atJackson State #355conf+4.664%
Mon Jan 25atAlcorn State #358conf+5.066%
Sat Jan 30vsAlabama State #340conf+8.375%
Mon Feb 01vsAlabama A&M #343conf+8.275%
Sat Feb 06atPrairie View A&M #341conf+3.561%
Mon Feb 08atTexas Southern #331conf+1.856%
Sat Feb 13vsAlcorn State #358conf+11.181%
Mon Feb 15vsJackson State #355conf+10.981%
Thu Feb 18atAlabama A&M #343conf+2.357%
Thu Feb 25vsGrambling #302conf+6.169%
Sat Feb 27vsSouthern #235conf+3.962%
Thu Mar 04vsFlorida A&M #336conf+8.174%

Projected margin is from Bethune-Cookman's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.