Roster Math

Teams › ACC · Compare Stanford with another team

Stanford

Stanford returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #75 on both offense and defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +1.7 to +16.4.

+9.0
Rating · #69 of 365
+5.0
Offense · #75
+4.0
Defense · #75
+1.7 to +16.4
80% range
5%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
18-13
Projected record · 13 to 23 wins
8-10
Projected in ACC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Stanford's preseason projection of +9.0 (No. 69 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +5.2, about the +5.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 79 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.3, about its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.0. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (32%). The projection leans most on Nick Townsend (+4.7), Christian Bliss (+4.5) and Austin Maurer (+1.8); the newcomer who matters most is Nick Townsend, a transfer from Yale, at +4.7. Its 80% range, +1.7 to +16.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 38% · Transfer 38% · Freshman 21% · Other newcomer 3%

Nick Townsend+4.7
Christian Bliss+4.5
Austin Maurer+1.8
Jeremy Dent-Smith+0.7
Aidan Cammann+0.3
Aziz Olajuwon+0.1
Isaiah Rogers+0.0
Anthony Batson Jr.-0.1
Myles Jones-0.1
Ethan Kitch-0.1
Julius Price-0.1
Evan Stinson-0.1
Elias Obenyah-0.2
Drew Anderson-0.2
Kristers Skrinda-0.2
Tallis Toure-0.2
Cameron Grant-0.3
Donavin Young-0.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
83Nick TownsendF6-74TransferYale28+6.7+4.7
112Christian BlissG6-41TransferDelaware31+5.8+4.5
422Austin MaurerC7-02TransferSeattle U17+4.4+1.8
1014Jeremy Dent-SmithG6-13ReturningStanford19+1.4+0.7
1297Aidan CammannF6-102ReturningStanford19+0.6+0.3
1390Aziz OlajuwonF6-70FreshmanHigh school11+0.5+0.1
1750Isaiah RogersG6-20FreshmanHigh school10-0.2+0.0
2085Anthony Batson Jr.F6-32Other newcomer3-1.0-0.1
2085Myles JonesF6-30Other newcomer3-1.0-0.1
2104Julius PriceG6-20FreshmanHigh school8-0.7-0.1
2104Ethan KitchG6-21ReturningStanford4-1.0-0.1
2220Elias ObenyahG6-40FreshmanHigh school7-0.8-0.2
2231Evan StinsonF6-72ReturningStanford5-1.0-0.1
2264Drew AndersonF6-90FreshmanHigh school7-0.9-0.2
2333Kristers SkrindaF6-101ReturningStanford6-1.1-0.2
2455Tallis ToureF6-112ReturningStanford4-1.5-0.2
3038Cameron GrantF6-72ReturningStanford8-1.6-0.3
4087Donavin YoungF6-82ReturningStanford11-2.3-0.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsEastern Washington #146+12.084%
Fri Nov 06vsOakland #159+12.785%
Mon Nov 09vsRice #262+15.790%
Fri Nov 13atUNLV #139-0.648%
Tue Nov 17vsUC Irvine #105+10.179%
Thu Nov 19vsSacramento State #199+14.688%
Tue Nov 24NColorado #85+0.953%
Sun Nov 29vsPortland #339+19.895%
Wed Dec 02atTexas A&M #31-10.919%
Sun Dec 06vsPacific #175+12.585%
Mon Dec 14vsNorthern Colorado #128+11.382%
Fri Dec 18vsSan José State #187+13.086%
Tue Dec 22vsSt. Thomas-Minnesota #130+11.282%
Wed Dec 30atNotre Dame #75conf-2.243%
Sat Jan 02atLouisville #7conf-12.017%
Wed Jan 06vsVirginia #19conf-3.140%
Sat Jan 09vsFlorida State #90conf+5.366%
Wed Jan 13atDuke #2conf-15.111%
Sat Jan 16atNorth Carolina #54conf-5.433%
Sat Jan 23atCalifornia #115conf+1.354%
Wed Jan 27vsSyracuse #71conf+3.662%
Sat Jan 30vsNC State #36conf+0.351%
Wed Feb 03atGeorgia Tech #140conf+3.060%
Sat Feb 06atSMU #53conf-5.034%
Wed Feb 10vsMiami #18conf-3.240%
Sat Feb 13vsVirginia Tech #45conf+1.053%
Wed Feb 17atSyracuse #71conf-3.339%
Sat Feb 20atClemson #46conf-5.333%
Wed Feb 24vsWake Forest #76conf+4.263%
Sat Feb 27vsBoston College #114conf+7.372%
Sat Mar 06vsCalifornia #115conf+7.573%

Projected margin is from Stanford's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.