Teams › ACC · Compare Louisville with another team
Louisville
Louisville returns 10% of last season's minutes and rates #8 on offense and #9 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +14.9 to +29.6.
Why we have them here
Louisville's preseason projection of +22.3 (No. 7 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +15.1, more than the +11.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 13 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.8, about its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.8. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.1, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 10% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (35%). The projection leans most on Flory Bidunga (+10.1), Alvaro Folgueiras (+4.3) and Adrian Wooley (+3.0); the newcomer who matters most is Flory Bidunga, a transfer from Kansas, at +10.1. Its 80% range, +14.9 to +29.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 10% · Transfer 77% · Freshman 12%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Flory Bidunga | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Kansas | 29 | +13.9 | +10.1 |
| 55 | Alvaro Folgueiras | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Iowa | 19 | +9.0 | +4.3 |
| 163 | Adrian Wooley | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Louisville | 18 | +6.7 | +3.0 |
| 272 | Jackson Shelstad | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Oregon | 20 | +5.0 | +2.5 |
| 352 | Karter Knox | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Arkansas | 16 | +5.0 | +2.0 |
| 366 | De'Shayne Montgomery | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Dayton | 21 | +4.3 | +2.3 |
| 409 | Seth Trimble | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | North Carolina | 21 | +4.0 | +2.1 |
| 458 | LJ Wells | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Northern Kentucky | 21 | +3.7 | +1.9 |
| 795 | Obinna Ekezie Jr. | C | 7-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +2.8 | +0.9 |
| 1322 | Boyuan Zhang | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.9 | +0.2 |
| 1562 | Will Hanke | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Louisville | 3 | +0.3 | +0.0 |
| 1961 | Gabe Dynes | C | 7-5 | 3 | Transfer | USC | 7 | -0.5 | -0.1 |
| 2100 | Isaac Ellis | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Chattanooga #226 | +23.3 | 97% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Morehead State #265 | +24.4 | 98% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  Memphis #100 | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Stetson #311 | +26.8 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Texas Tech #15 | +1.7 | 55% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Texas #20 | +8.6 | 75% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  Michigan #11 | +1.2 | 54% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Kentucky #22 | -4.4 | 36% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Long Island University #210 | +23.1 | 97% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Eastern Michigan #244 | +23.9 | 97% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Stanford #69 | conf | +12.0 | 83% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  North Carolina #54 | conf | +10.4 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  SMU #53 | conf | +4.3 | 64% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  California #115 | conf | +16.2 | 90% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Syracuse #71 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Miami #18 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 23 | N |  Baylor #37 | +6.0 | 69% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | at |  Boston College #114 | conf | +10.5 | 80% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +12.8 | 85% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +11.3 | 82% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | +12.9 | 85% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at | North Carolina #54 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | SMU #53 | conf | +10.3 | 80% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at |  Virginia #19 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at |  Florida State #90 | conf | +8.2 | 74% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Duke #2 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  NC State #36 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Clemson #46 | conf | +9.1 | 77% |
Projected margin is from Louisville's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.