Roster Math

Teams › SWAC · Compare Florida A&M with another team

Florida A&M

Florida A&M returns 71% of last season's minutes and rates #351 on offense and #267 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -17.0 to -2.2.

-9.5
Rating · #336 of 365
-7.3
Offense · #351
-2.2
Defense · #267
-17.0 to -2.2
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-18
Projected record · 6 to 17 wins
9-9
Projected in SWAC · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Florida A&M's preseason projection of -9.5 (No. 336 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -4.3, more than the -5.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 328 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.3, about its neighbours' -2.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -3.2. It returns 71% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Micah Octave (+2.1), Antonio Baker Jr. (-0.4) and Amir Rahman (-0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Ja'Quavis Williford, a transfer from Oregon State, at -0.7. Its 80% range, -17.0 to -2.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 71% · Transfer 17%

Micah Octave+2.1
Antonio Baker Jr.-0.4
Amir Rahman-0.6
Malcolm Stute-0.6
Ja'Quavis Williford-0.7
Jaden Kempson-0.7
Miles Ndalama-0.8
Jacobi Hall-0.8
Tuscan Onuoha-0.8
Devere Palmer Jr-1.0
Anthony Knowles-1.3
Lenard Taylor Jr.-1.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
484Micah OctaveG6-53ReturningFlorida A&M28+3.0+2.1
2486Antonio Baker Jr.G6-31ReturningFlorida A&M26-0.6-0.4
3632Jaden KempsonG6-31TransferUAlbany25-1.2-0.7
3829Miles NdalamaC6-111ReturningFlorida A&M21-1.4-0.8
4357Ja'Quavis WillifordG6-72TransferOregon State9-2.9-0.7
4529Amir RahmanG6-31ReturningFlorida A&M7-3.8-0.6
4537Devere Palmer JrG6-61ReturningFlorida A&M16-2.5-1.0
4552Malcolm StuteG6-42ReturningFlorida A&M7-3.7-0.6
4643Jacobi HallF1ReturningFlorida A&M9-3.5-0.8
4793Tuscan OnuohaF6-111ReturningFlorida A&M8-4.0-0.8
5094Anthony KnowlesG6-01ReturningFlorida A&M11-5.0-1.3
5118Lenard Taylor Jr.G6-22ReturningFlorida A&M11-5.1-1.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NFlorida State #90-11.617%
Mon Nov 09atUAB #158-12.416%
Wed Nov 11NKansas City #338+0.050%
Sun Nov 15atUTEP #237-9.123%
Wed Nov 18atUTSA #284-7.427%
Tue Nov 24atSouth Alabama #228-9.622%
Mon Nov 30atKennesaw State #167-13.015%
Fri Dec 04NNorfolk State #300-2.044%
Sat Dec 05NTennessee State #154-7.428%
Sat Dec 12atTulsa #82-18.17%
Tue Dec 15atSaint Louis #56-21.24%
Mon Dec 21atFlorida #1-35.6<1%
Sat Jan 02vsBethune-Cookman #220conf-2.343%
Sat Jan 09atSouthern #235conf-8.026%
Mon Jan 11atGrambling #302conf-3.539%
Sat Jan 16vsArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf+4.464%
Mon Jan 18vsMississippi Valley State #365conf+14.087%
Sat Jan 23atAlcorn State #358conf-0.150%
Mon Jan 25atJackson State #355conf-0.748%
Sat Jan 30vsAlabama A&M #343conf+3.060%
Mon Feb 01vsAlabama State #340conf+2.959%
Sat Feb 06atTexas Southern #331conf-3.439%
Mon Feb 08atPrairie View A&M #341conf-1.844%
Sat Feb 13vsJackson State #355conf+5.367%
Mon Feb 15vsAlcorn State #358conf+5.668%
Thu Feb 18vsAlabama A&M #343conf+3.060%
Sat Feb 20atAlabama A&M #343conf-2.642%
Thu Feb 25vsSouthern #235conf-1.545%
Sat Feb 27vsGrambling #302conf+0.853%
Thu Mar 04atBethune-Cookman #220conf-8.126%

Projected margin is from Florida A&M's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.