Teams › Big 12 · Compare Houston with another team
Houston
Houston returns 30% of last season's minutes and rates #28 on offense and #4 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +14.8 to +29.5.
Why we have them here
Houston's preseason projection of +22.2 (No. 8 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.9, less than the +11.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 6 at the end of 2025-26) adds +4.6, more than its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +6.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.1, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 30% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (35%). The projection leans most on Joseph Tugler (+4.4), Delrecco Gillespie (+2.9) and Corey Hadnot II (+2.9); the newcomer who matters most is Delrecco Gillespie, a transfer from Kent State, at +2.9. Its 80% range, +14.8 to +29.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 29% · Transfer 57% · Freshman 13% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73 | Joseph Tugler | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Houston | 23 | +7.6 | +4.4 |
| 273 | Dedan Thomas Jr. | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | LSU | 22 | +4.8 | +2.6 |
| 278 | Corey Hadnot II | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Purdue Fort Wayne | 27 | +4.3 | +2.9 |
| 283 | Delrecco Gillespie | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Kent State | 27 | +4.2 | +2.9 |
| 411 | Mercy Miller | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Houston | 15 | +4.7 | +1.8 |
| 417 | Braden East | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Lamar | 21 | +4.0 | +2.1 |
| 584 | Chase McCarty | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Houston | 13 | +3.8 | +1.3 |
| 1107 | Arafan Diane | C | 7-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +1.7 | +0.3 |
| 1175 | Ikenna Alozie | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | +1.3 | +0.3 |
| 1176 | Kordel Jefferson | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Houston | 6 | +1.6 | +0.2 |
| 1217 | Chendall Weaver | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | Texas | 17 | +0.8 | +0.4 |
| 1591 | Bryce Jackson | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1830 | Tyus Thomas | G | 5-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1830 | Djafar Silimana | C | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | -1.0 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  La Salle #218 | +23.1 | 97% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | N |  California #115 | +12.4 | 85% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Jacksonville State #203 | +22.8 | 97% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Rutgers #102 | +11.2 | 82% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +22.5 | 97% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Queens University #142 | +21.9 | 96% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Central Arkansas #181 | +23.2 | 97% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Texas State #183 | +22.5 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | N |  Alabama #17 | +2.0 | 57% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | N |  LSU #39 | +5.7 | 68% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Florida State #90 | +10.5 | 80% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | +21.4 | 96% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  TCU #51 | conf | +11.6 | 83% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Baylor #37 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Iowa State #9 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Colorado #85 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | +6.2 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | +7.7 | 74% |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs |  Kansas #10 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Arizona #3 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  UCF #70 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Texas Tech #15 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +16.0 | 90% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Colorado #85 | conf | +14.6 | 88% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +2.8 | 59% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Arizona #3 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
Projected margin is from Houston's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.