Roster Math

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Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech returns 9% of last season's minutes and rates #184 on offense and #111 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.8 to +9.0.

+1.5
Rating · #140 of 365
-0.5
Offense · #184
+2.0
Defense · #111
-5.8 to +9.0
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-19
Projected record · 8 to 19 wins
5-13
Projected in ACC · 2 to 8 wins

Why we have them here

Georgia Tech's preseason projection of +1.5 (No. 140 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.1, less than the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 224 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.6, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.9. It returns 9% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Colby Garland (+3.0), Victor Valdes (+0.6) and Nasir Whitlock (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Colby Garland, a transfer from San José State, at +3.0. Its 80% range, -5.8 to +9.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 9% · Transfer 56% · Freshman 14% · Other newcomer 21%

Colby Garland+3.0
Victor Valdes+0.6
Nasir Whitlock+0.4
Kayden Allen+0.2
Moustapha Diop+0.0
Courtland Muldrew-0.1
Kaiden Bailey-0.2
Haiden Harper-0.2
Cody Cross-0.3
Jackson Fields-0.3
Vctor Valds-0.3
Tylis Jordan-0.4
Ilja Kurucs-0.4
Jackson McVey-0.5
Davi Remagen-0.8
Cole Kirouac-0.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
286Colby GarlandG6-03TransferSan José State30+4.0+3.0
1099Victor ValdesF6-73TransferTroy26+1.0+0.6
1267Nasir WhitlockG6-23TransferLehigh31+0.5+0.4
1336Kayden AllenF6-50FreshmanHigh school10+0.7+0.2
1620Moustapha DiopC6-100FreshmanHigh school8+0.1+0.0
1839Courtland MuldrewG6-31TransferWashington13-0.2-0.1
2405Kaiden BaileyG6-20FreshmanHigh school10-0.9-0.2
2642Jackson FieldsF6-84TransferWest Virginia12-1.0-0.3
2808Haiden HarperF6-10Other newcomer6-1.6-0.2
2893Cody CrossF6-20Other newcomer6-1.7-0.3
3352Vctor ValdsF6-70Other newcomer7-2.0-0.3
3532Tylis JordanF6-90Other newcomer7-2.1-0.4
3613Ilja KurucsF6-100Other newcomer7-2.2-0.4
3865Jackson McVeyF7-10Other newcomer8-2.4-0.5
4796Cole KirouacC7-01ReturningGeorgia Tech10-3.7-0.9
4829Davi RemagenG6-31ReturningGeorgia Tech8-4.2-0.8

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03vsHampton #288+10.781%
Fri Nov 06vsGeorgia Southern #298+11.783%
Tue Nov 10vsEastern Kentucky #264+10.279%
Sat Nov 14vsUNC Asheville #245+9.077%
Tue Nov 17vsNorfolk State #300+11.582%
Fri Nov 20vsGeorgia #32-4.237%
Tue Nov 24vsSamford #190+7.472%
Sat Nov 28vsAlcorn State #358+16.591%
Wed Dec 02atMississippi State #78-10.819%
Sun Dec 06NMurray State #117-1.346%
Wed Dec 09vsThe Citadel #345+14.187%
Sat Dec 12NFlorida #1-21.64%
Sat Dec 19NButler #86-4.436%
Tue Dec 22vsLongwood #195+7.974%
Wed Dec 30vsDuke #2conf-15.311%
Sat Jan 02atSyracuse #71conf-8.924%
Tue Jan 05vsMiami #18conf-10.021%
Sat Jan 09vsNotre Dame #75conf-2.741%
Tue Jan 12atClemson #46conf-10.719%
Tue Jan 19vsNC State #36conf-6.630%
Sat Jan 23atSMU #53conf-10.720%
Wed Jan 27atVirginia #19conf-16.59%
Sat Jan 30vsLouisville #7conf-12.815%
Wed Feb 03vsStanford #69conf-3.040%
Sat Feb 06atNorth Carolina #54conf-11.019%
Tue Feb 09atBoston College #114conf-4.037%
Tue Feb 16vsClemson #46conf-5.533%
Sat Feb 20atPittsburgh #68conf-8.325%
Tue Feb 23atFlorida State #90conf-7.029%
Sat Feb 27vsSMU #53conf-5.134%
Wed Mar 03atWake Forest #76conf-8.325%
Sat Mar 06vsVirginia Tech #45conf-5.832%

Projected margin is from Georgia Tech's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.