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Tennessee
Tennessee returns 10% of last season's minutes and rates #19 on offense and #14 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +13.1 to +27.6.
Why we have them here
Tennessee's preseason projection of +20.4 (No. 13 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.6, less than the +11.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 14 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.6, about its neighbours' +3.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +5.1. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.8, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 10% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (35%). The projection leans most on Juke Harris (+6.1), Terrence Hill Jr. (+4.6) and Jalen Washington (+1.7); the newcomer who matters most is Juke Harris, a transfer from Wake Forest, at +6.1. Its 80% range, +13.1 to +27.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 10% · Transfer 79% · Freshman 11% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | Juke Harris | G | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Wake Forest | 29 | +8.3 | +6.1 |
| 44 | Terrence Hill Jr. | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | VCU | 20 | +9.4 | +4.6 |
| 395 | Jalen Washington | C | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | Vanderbilt | 14 | +5.1 | +1.7 |
| 548 | Tyler Lundblade | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Belmont | 22 | +3.0 | +1.7 |
| 877 | Miles Rubin | C | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Loyola Chicago | 18 | +2.0 | +0.9 |
| 1024 | DeWayne Brown II | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee | 9 | +2.0 | +0.4 |
| 1076 | Jalen Haralson | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Notre Dame | 16 | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| 1154 | Dai Dai Ames | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | California | 19 | +1.0 | +0.5 |
| 1233 | Troy Henderson | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Tennessee | 5 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 1382 | Christopher Washington Jr. | F | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| 1498 | Gavin Paull | G | 5-11 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee | 3 | +0.6 | +0.0 |
| 1500 | Ralph Scott | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1517 | Campbell Duncan | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Tennessee | 3 | +0.5 | +0.0 |
| 1710 | Braedan Lue | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Kennesaw State | 15 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1730 | Chris Washington Jr. | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | -0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1806 | Manny Green | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -0.4 | +0.0 |
| 2016 | Christian Fermin | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | VCU | 5 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2176 | Marquis Clark | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Wofford #306 | +25.4 | 98% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Radford #241 | +24.2 | 97% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Tennessee State #154 | +21.2 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Michigan State #6 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | +25.7 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Maryland #64 | +7.1 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Florida State #90 | +16.8 | 91% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | N |  NC State #36 | +4.6 | 65% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | at |  Purdue #38 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Morehead State #265 | +23.5 | 97% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Marist #205 | +21.6 | 96% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Norfolk State #300 | +25.5 | 98% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Auburn #16 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  LSU #39 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +8.8 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | +0.6 | 52% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Missouri #43 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Kentucky #22 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +13.9 | 87% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +12.7 | 85% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
Projected margin is from Tennessee's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.