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North Carolina
North Carolina returns 24% of last season's minutes and rates #67 on offense and #42 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +4.1 to +18.9.
Why we have them here
North Carolina's preseason projection of +11.5 (No. 54 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.9, less than the +6.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 29 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.9, more than its neighbours' +1.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.0. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 24% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Neoklis Avdalas (+2.7), Terrence Brown (+1.4) and Matt Able (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Neoklis Avdalas, a transfer from Virginia Tech, at +2.7. Its 80% range, +4.1 to +18.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 59% · Freshman 12% · Other newcomer 5%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 332 | Neoklis Avdalas | G | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Virginia Tech | 26 | +4.0 | +2.7 |
| 722 | Terrence Brown | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Utah | 26 | +2.2 | +1.4 |
| 762 | Matt Able | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | NC State | 21 | +2.2 | +1.2 |
| 849 | Jarin Stevenson | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | North Carolina | 24 | +1.8 | +1.1 |
| 920 | Cameron Fens | C | 7-0 | 4 | Transfer | South Dakota | 21 | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| 1047 | Maximo Adams | F | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +1.9 | +0.4 |
| 1193 | Isaiah Denis | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | North Carolina | 7 | +1.5 | +0.2 |
| 1319 | Evan Smith | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | North Carolina | 5 | +1.1 | +0.1 |
| 1328 | Sayon Keita | C | 6-11 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | +1.2 | +0.1 |
| 1434 | Kevin Thomas | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1720 | John Holbrook | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | North Carolina | 5 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1792 | Malloy Smith | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1991 | Alex Samodurov | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2031 | Cade Bennerman | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2037 | Angelo Brizzi | G | 6-3 | 4 | Transfer | Buffalo | 23 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 3395 | Jaydon Young | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | North Carolina | 7 | -2.0 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Western Carolina #152 | +14.3 | 88% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Wofford #306 | +19.5 | 94% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Wyoming #121 | +12.6 | 85% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Georgia #32 | +4.8 | 65% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Marshall #247 | +17.6 | 92% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Monmouth #216 | +16.3 | 91% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  West Virginia #48 | -0.5 | 48% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Arkansas #25 | +2.8 | 59% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Butler #86 | +9.8 | 79% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Georgetown #84 | -2.7 | 41% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | N |  NC State #36 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Kentucky #22 | -4.7 | 35% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  The Citadel #345 | +21.7 | 96% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  California #115 | conf | +9.4 | 78% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Boston College #114 | conf | +3.0 | 59% |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Louisville #7 | conf | -10.4 | 20% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs | NC State #36 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Florida State #90 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Stanford #69 | conf | +5.4 | 67% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Virginia #19 | conf | -1.2 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Syracuse #71 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  SMU #53 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 30 | N |  Illinois #5 | -8.0 | 26% | |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +11.0 | 81% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs | Louisville #7 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Duke #2 | conf | -13.6 | 13% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Mon Feb 22 | vs |  Miami #18 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Duke #2 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
Projected margin is from North Carolina's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.