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California
California returns 37% of last season's minutes and rates #116 on offense and #144 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -3.8 to +10.6.
Why we have them here
California's preseason projection of +3.3 (No. 115 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.0, about the +2.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 83 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, about its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.0. It returns 37% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (61%). The projection leans most on Nojus Indrusaitis (+1.8), Semetri Carr (+1.7) and Michael Cooper (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Nojus Indrusaitis, a transfer from Pittsburgh, at +1.8. Its 80% range, -3.8 to +10.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 30% · Transfer 44% · Freshman 9% · Other newcomer 17%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 492 | Semetri Carr | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | California | 18 | +3.7 | +1.7 |
| 528 | Nojus Indrusaitis | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Pittsburgh | 23 | +3.1 | +1.8 |
| 598 | Jake Wilkins | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Georgia | 14 | +3.6 | +1.3 |
| 697 | Michael Cooper | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Wright State | 23 | +2.4 | +1.4 |
| 929 | Jordan Ross | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Georgia | 19 | +1.7 | +0.8 |
| 1637 | Amier Ali | G | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | Mississippi State | 10 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1806 | Nicolas Mitrovic | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2155 | Dionycius Bakare | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| 2322 | Jorell Clark | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.0 | -0.2 | |
| 2455 | Jacob Wilkins | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.2 | -0.2 | ||
| 2455 | Jovani Ruff | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.2 | -0.2 | |
| 2524 | Gabriel Sularski | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2677 | Sammie Yeanay | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | California | 8 | -1.3 | -0.3 |
| 2742 | Luke Butler | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | California | 6 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2857 | Dominykas Daubaris | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 2974 | Dhiaukuei Manyiel Dut | F | 7-0 | 2 | Returning | California | 7 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3010 | BJ Fisher | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | California | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3152 | Stephon Marbury II | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | California | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 3930 | Mantas Kocanas | C | 6-11 | 2 | Returning | California | 9 | -2.3 | -0.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | vs |  Radford #241 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | N |  Houston #8 | -12.4 | 15% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  USC #35 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Utah Tech #275 | +11.8 | 83% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +14.0 | 87% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +15.1 | 89% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Minnesota #65 | -4.2 | 37% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Utah #72 | -11.2 | 18% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Vanderbilt #26 | -3.1 | 40% | |
| Thu Dec 10 | vs |  SE Louisiana #286 | +11.9 | 83% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  UC Riverside #252 | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Southern #235 | +10.9 | 81% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Northeastern #296 | +12.9 | 85% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  North Carolina #54 | conf | -9.4 | 22% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Duke #2 | conf | -19.2 | 6% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Florida State #90 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Virginia #19 | conf | -8.0 | 26% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Louisville #7 | conf | -16.2 | 10% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Stanford #69 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  NC State #36 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Syracuse #71 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  SMU #53 | conf | -9.1 | 23% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Clemson #46 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Miami #18 | conf | -8.1 | 26% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | -6.9 | 29% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | NC State #36 | conf | -10.7 | 19% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Boston College #114 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Stanford #69 | conf | -7.5 | 27% |
Projected margin is from California's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.