Teams › ACC · Compare SMU with another team
SMU
SMU returns 27% of last season's minutes and rates #44 on offense and #61 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +4.4 to +19.2.
Why we have them here
SMU's preseason projection of +11.8 (No. 53 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +5.5, less than the +6.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 46 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.6, more than its neighbours' +1.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.0. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 27% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Rowan Brumbaugh (+5.2), David Terrell Jr. (+2.5) and Oziyah Sellers (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Rowan Brumbaugh, a transfer from Tulane, at +5.2. Its 80% range, +4.4 to +19.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 59% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 8%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 68 | Rowan Brumbaugh | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | Tulane | 31 | +6.8 | +5.2 |
| 380 | David Terrell Jr. | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | North Texas | 27 | +3.7 | +2.5 |
| 383 | Oziyah Sellers | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | St. John's | 26 | +3.7 | +2.4 |
| 614 | Jaden Toombs | C | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | SMU | 19 | +3.0 | +1.4 |
| 737 | Jaylin Stewart | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | UConn | 16 | +2.7 | +1.1 |
| 1834 | Cam Lomax | G | 6-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 1858 | Nigel Walls | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | SMU | 9 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2009 | Nicolas Codie | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 6 | -0.7 | -0.1 | ||
| 2040 | Gehrig Normand | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 5 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 2143 | Billy White III | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -0.8 | -0.1 | |
| 2145 | Niccolo Kalischer-Stork | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | SMU | 6 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| 3510 | Jermaine O'Neal Jr. | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | SMU | 14 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| 3921 | Johan Munch | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Oregon State | 17 | -1.6 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Southern #235 | +17.6 | 92% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  VMI #350 | +22.6 | 97% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | +22.1 | 96% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Ball State #153 | +13.4 | 86% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +20.6 | 95% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | +16.1 | 90% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Utah State #29 | -2.6 | 42% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  LSU #39 | -1.3 | 46% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Stephen F. Austin #161 | +14.0 | 87% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  DePaul #97 | -1.6 | 45% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  UTSA #284 | +18.7 | 93% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Tulsa #82 | -3.2 | 40% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Minnesota #65 | +1.4 | 55% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  UNLV #139 | +7.4 | 72% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | +3.9 | 62% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Virginia #19 | conf | -9.0 | 23% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Wake Forest #76 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Louisville #7 | conf | -4.3 | 36% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  NC State #36 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +10.7 | 80% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  North Carolina #54 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | conf | -0.3 | 49% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  California #115 | conf | +9.1 | 77% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Stanford #69 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Duke #2 | conf | -7.1 | 28% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Louisville #7 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Boston College #114 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Syracuse #71 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Clemson #46 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Georgia Tech #140 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Miami #18 | conf | -8.1 | 26% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Pittsburgh #68 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
Projected margin is from SMU's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.