Roster Math

Teams › SoCon · Compare Western Carolina with another team

Western Carolina

Western Carolina returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #152 on offense and #186 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.5 to +8.1.

+0.7
Rating · #152 of 365
+0.7
Offense · #152
+0.0
Defense · #186
-6.5 to +8.1
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-13
Projected record · 9 to 19 wins
12-8
Projected in SoCon · 8 to 16 wins

Why we have them here

Western Carolina's preseason projection of +0.7 (No. 152 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.7, more than the +0.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 187 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.3. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (54%). The projection leans most on Samuel Dada (+2.5), Tahlan Pettway (+1.6) and Isaiah Manning (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is Isaiah Manning, a transfer from Sam Houston, at +1.1. Its 80% range, -6.5 to +8.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 59% · Transfer 39% · Other newcomer 2%

Samuel Dada+2.5
Tahlan Pettway+1.6
Isaiah Manning+1.1
Abdulai Fanta Kabba+0.6
Tidjiane Dioumassi+0.4
Travelle Bryson+0.0
Titian DeRosa-0.1
Malachi Brown-0.1
Justin Johnson-0.1
Drew Hollifield-0.2
Max Williams-0.2
Donovan Raymond-0.3
Fischer Brown-0.5
Jaxon Prunty-0.6
Tayeshaun Smith-0.7
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
289Samuel DadaF6-91ReturningWestern Carolina21+4.8+2.5
563Tahlan PettwayG6-21ReturningWestern Carolina21+3.1+1.6
764Isaiah ManningF6-82TransferSam Houston18+2.4+1.1
999Abdulai Fanta KabbaC7-02ReturningWestern Carolina16+1.6+0.6
1219Tidjiane DioumassiG6-43ReturningWestern Carolina22+0.7+0.4
1674Travelle BrysonF6-51TransferHoward16+0.0+0.0
1876Malachi BrownG6-13TransferGeorgia State24-0.2-0.1
2020Justin JohnsonG6-82ReturningWestern Carolina14-0.4-0.1
2296Titian DeRosaF5-90Other newcomer4-1.2-0.1
2815Drew HollifieldG5-111ReturningWestern Carolina4-1.9-0.2
3098Donovan RaymondF6-103TransferOld Dominion6-1.8-0.3
3323Max WilliamsG6-61ReturningWestern Carolina4-2.7-0.2
3741Jaxon PruntyG6-62TransferCharleston13-1.7-0.6
3861Fischer BrownG6-42ReturningWestern Carolina7-2.4-0.5
4659Tayeshaun SmithF6-71ReturningWestern Carolina8-3.7-0.7

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atNorth Carolina #54-14.312%
Sat Nov 07atUNC Asheville #245-2.741%
Sat Nov 14vsLipscomb #118+4.163%
Tue Nov 17atButler #86-10.520%
Sat Nov 21atWake Forest #76-11.717%
Sun Nov 29atCharlotte #131-6.330%
Sat Dec 05vsThe Citadel #345conf+10.480%
Sun Dec 13atVirginia #19-19.66%
Sat Dec 19atFurman #110conf-4.436%
Tue Dec 22atWofford #306conf+3.862%
Wed Dec 30vsChattanooga #226conf+4.965%
Sat Jan 02vsVMI #350conf+11.282%
Wed Jan 06atMercer #231conf+0.250%
Sat Jan 09atEast Tennessee State #171conf-2.044%
Wed Jan 13atUNC Greensboro #246conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 16vsSamford #190conf+3.862%
Mon Jan 18vsMercer #231conf+5.467%
Thu Jan 21atTennessee Tech #280conf+2.357%
Sat Jan 23atChattanooga #226conf+0.652%
Wed Jan 27vsWofford #306conf+7.974%
Wed Feb 03vsTennessee Tech #280conf+6.871%
Sat Feb 06atSamford #190conf-1.645%
Wed Feb 10atThe Citadel #345conf+5.868%
Sat Feb 13vsFurman #110conf+0.451%
Thu Feb 18vsEast Tennessee State #171conf+3.260%
Sat Feb 20vsUNC Greensboro #246conf+5.668%
Sat Feb 27atVMI #350conf+6.069%

Projected margin is from Western Carolina's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.