Roster Math

Teams › Big 12 · Compare West Virginia with another team

West Virginia

West Virginia returns 23% of last season's minutes and rates #51 on offense and #39 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +5.0 to +19.6.

+12.3
Rating · #48 of 365
+6.3
Offense · #51
+6.0
Defense · #39
+5.0 to +19.6
80% range
15%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
17-13
Projected record · 13 to 22 wins
8-10
Projected in Big 12 · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

West Virginia's preseason projection of +12.3 (No. 48 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.6, more than the +7.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 62 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.5, about its neighbours' +2.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 23% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Jasper Floyd (+4.3), Finley Bizjack (+3.2) and Martin Somerville (+3.1); the newcomer who matters most is Finley Bizjack, a transfer from Butler, at +3.2. Its 80% range, +5.0 to +19.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 20% · Transfer 61% · Freshman 16% · Other newcomer 3%

Jasper Floyd+4.3
Finley Bizjack+3.2
Martin Somerville+3.1
Javan Buchanan+3.1
Miles Sadler+1.4
Joson Sanon+1.0
Mouhamed Sylla+0.9
Amir Jenkins+0.4
Amadou Seini+0.0
Aliou Dioum+0.0
Evans Barning Jr.-0.1
MJ Feenane-0.1
Niyol Hauet-0.1
Keonte Greybear-0.1
Seydou Traore-0.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
96Jasper FloydG6-33ReturningWest Virginia24+7.1+4.3
191Martin SomervilleG6-32TransferFlorida State23+5.5+3.1
192Javan BuchananF6-72TransferBoise State22+5.6+3.1
217Finley BizjackG6-43TransferButler26+4.9+3.2
605Miles SadlerG5-100FreshmanHigh school18+3.1+1.4
769Joson SanonG6-52TransferSt. John's16+2.5+1.0
821Mouhamed SyllaC6-101TransferGeorgia Tech14+2.5+0.9
1157Amir JenkinsG6-21ReturningWest Virginia12+1.2+0.4
1514Amadou SeiniC7-10FreshmanHigh school3+0.5+0.0
1665Aliou DioumC6-100FreshmanHigh school5+0.0+0.0
2052MJ FeenaneF6-60Other newcomer3-1.0-0.1
2065Evans Barning Jr.F6-70Other newcomer3-1.0-0.1
2162Seydou TraoreF6-63TransferUtah21-0.5-0.2
2258Keonte GreybearG6-20FreshmanHigh school6-0.9-0.1
2318Niyol HauetG6-41ReturningWest Virginia3-1.4-0.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsNiagara #329+19.094%
Fri Nov 06vsStetson #311+19.494%
Thu Nov 12vsMercer #231+17.292%
Tue Nov 17NAuburn #16-4.934%
Fri Nov 27NNorth Carolina #54+0.552%
Tue Dec 01vsMercyhurst #239+16.591%
Sat Dec 05vsVirginia Tech #45+6.370%
Wed Dec 09NPittsburgh #68+1.856%
Sun Dec 13vsCoppin State #364+26.398%
Wed Dec 16vsNorthern Arizona #307+18.494%
Sat Dec 19NWake Forest #76+2.759%
Mon Dec 21vsSouth Carolina State #360+24.298%
Sat Jan 02atKansas #10conf-10.819%
Tue Jan 05vsOklahoma State #91conf+7.773%
Sat Jan 09atColorado #85conf-0.748%
Tue Jan 12vsKansas State #99conf+8.776%
Sat Jan 16vsCincinnati #42conf+3.060%
Wed Jan 20atUtah #72conf-1.944%
Sat Jan 23atBYU #23conf-8.824%
Wed Jan 27vsArizona State #52conf+3.963%
Sat Jan 30vsArizona #3conf-4.436%
Wed Feb 03atUCF #70conf-0.947%
Sat Feb 06vsIowa State #9conf-2.741%
Sat Feb 13atTexas Tech #15conf-8.425%
Tue Feb 16vsUCF #70conf+5.968%
Sat Feb 20atBaylor #37conf-5.034%
Wed Feb 24atCincinnati #42conf-4.237%
Sat Feb 27vsHouston #8conf-2.841%
Wed Mar 03vsTCU #51conf+3.862%
Sat Mar 06atIowa State #9conf-10.021%

Projected margin is from West Virginia's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.