Teams › SEC · Compare Arkansas with another team
Arkansas
Arkansas returns 24% of last season's minutes and rates #15 on offense and #38 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +9.9 to +25.1.
Why we have them here
Arkansas's preseason projection of +17.5 (No. 25 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.9, about the +9.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 19 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.8, more than its neighbours' +3.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.5, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 24% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (29%). The projection leans most on Jordan Smith Jr. (+6.7), Jeremiah Wilkinson (+3.1) and Billy Richmond III (+2.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jordan Smith Jr., a freshman, recruit No. 3, at +6.7. Its 80% range, +9.9 to +25.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 23% · Transfer 24% · Freshman 51% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Jordan Smith Jr. | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 29 | +9.3 | +6.7 |
| 232 | Jeremiah Wilkinson | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | Georgia | 26 | +4.9 | +3.1 |
| 386 | Billy Richmond III | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas | 26 | +3.8 | +2.4 |
| 556 | Abdou Toure | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 19 | +3.3 | +1.6 |
| 669 | JJ Andrews | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 19 | +2.8 | +1.3 |
| 975 | Cooper Bowser | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | Furman | 23 | +1.4 | +0.8 |
| 1071 | Isaiah Sealy | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas | 9 | +1.8 | +0.4 |
| 1125 | Miikka Muurinen | F | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1149 | Davion Thompson | G | 6-2 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1252 | Caleb Ourigou | C | 6-10 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +1.1 | +0.2 |
| 1449 | Ayden Kelley | G | 5-10 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas | 5 | +0.5 | +0.1 |
| 1787 | Amere Brown | G | 5-9 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas | 5 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| 1792 | Maper Maker | C | 7-0 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 3 | -0.4 | +0.0 |
| 1908 | Paulo Semedo | F | 7-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 2037 | Ilia Frolov | C | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | -1.6 | +0.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +28.9 | 99% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Virginia #19 | -8.5 | 25% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Robert Morris #113 | +16.5 | 91% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Central Arkansas #181 | +20.4 | 95% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Indiana #55 | +4.4 | 64% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +38.3 | >99% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Michigan State #6 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  North Carolina #54 | -2.8 | 41% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +25.9 | 98% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +19.5 | 94% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | vs |  UT Arlington #211 | +20.6 | 95% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Arizona #3 | -4.9 | 35% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Central Michigan #259 | +22.7 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | +20.1 | 95% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Missouri #43 | conf | +6.7 | 70% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  South Carolina #98 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Alabama #17 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Tennessee #13 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Georgia #32 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Texas #20 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  LSU #39 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Mississippi State #78 | conf | +10.7 | 80% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Ole Miss #61 | conf | +8.8 | 76% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Alabama #17 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs |  Auburn #16 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at |  Kentucky #22 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Tue Feb 23 | at | Missouri #43 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Florida #1 | conf | -6.4 | 31% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | LSU #39 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  Oklahoma #30 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
Projected margin is from Arkansas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.