Roster Math

Teams › Big East · Compare Butler with another team

Butler

Butler returns 36% of last season's minutes and rates #104 on offense and #66 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.1 to +15.0.

+7.5
Rating · #86 of 365
+3.1
Offense · #104
+4.4
Defense · #66
+0.1 to +15.0
80% range
3%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
16-16
Projected record · 10 to 21 wins
8-12
Projected in Big East · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Butler's preseason projection of +7.5 (No. 86 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +4.6, about the +3.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 85 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, about its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.4. It returns 36% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Michael Ajayi (+4.7), Treyson Anderson (+2.3) and Drayton Jones (+2.1); the newcomer who matters most is Treyson Anderson, a transfer from North Dakota State, at +2.3. Its 80% range, +0.1 to +15.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 29% · Transfer 46% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 8%

Michael Ajayi+4.7
Treyson Anderson+2.3
Drayton Jones+2.1
Eduardo Klafke+1.2
Jordan Ellerbee+0.8
Samis Calderon+0.1
Herly Brutus+0.0
Ethan McComb-0.2
Bryson Cardinal-0.2
Kevin Ndzie-0.3
Christian Moore-0.9
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
97Michael AjayiF6-73ReturningButler30+6.3+4.7
370Treyson AndersonF6-92TransferNorth Dakota State21+4.2+2.3
420Drayton JonesC6-113ReturningButler21+4.0+2.1
705Eduardo KlafkeG6-52TransferOle Miss17+2.7+1.2
1004Jordan EllerbeeG6-21TransferFlorida Gulf Coast25+1.3+0.8
1388Samis CalderonF6-81TransferKansas9+0.6+0.1
1582Herly BrutusF6-50FreshmanHigh school12+0.1+0.0
2501Ethan McCombG6-13ReturningButler7-1.2-0.2
2687Bryson CardinalF6-70Other newcomer7-1.3-0.2
3188Kevin NdzieF7-10Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
4151Christian MooreF6-63TransferThe Citadel20-1.7-0.9

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsLafayette #342+17.893%
Wed Nov 04vsFairleigh Dickinson #334+16.992%
Sun Nov 08atBoise State #87-6.530%
Fri Nov 13vsPittsburgh #68+4.263%
Tue Nov 17vsWestern Carolina #152+10.580%
Thu Nov 19vsNortheastern #296+16.090%
Sun Nov 22NNebraska #12-9.223%
Fri Nov 27vsBellarmine #305+15.590%
Wed Dec 02vsPresbyterian #243+13.186%
Sun Dec 06atNorth Carolina #54-9.821%
Sat Dec 12atProvidence #49conf-6.929%
Wed Dec 16vsSouth Carolina Upstate #268+14.788%
Sat Dec 19NGeorgia Tech #140+4.464%
Wed Dec 23vsMarquette #47conf-1.047%
Thu Dec 31vsUConn #4conf-8.525%
Sun Jan 03vsSt. John's #21conf-5.234%
Sat Jan 09atDePaul #97conf-1.545%
Tue Jan 12atXavier #57conf-5.932%
Fri Jan 15vsVillanova #24conf-4.436%
Mon Jan 18vsGeorgetown #84conf+2.458%
Sat Jan 23atUConn #4conf-14.113%
Wed Jan 27vsProvidence #49conf-0.947%
Sat Jan 30atMarquette #47conf-7.627%
Wed Feb 03atSeton Hall #106conf-0.748%
Sat Feb 06vsXavier #57conf+0.251%
Sat Feb 13atGeorgetown #84conf-2.442%
Wed Feb 17vsCreighton #41conf-1.645%
Sat Feb 20atVillanova #24conf-10.619%
Tue Feb 23vsDePaul #97conf+3.561%
Sat Feb 27atSt. John's #21conf-11.218%
Tue Mar 02atCreighton #41conf-7.627%
Sat Mar 06vsSeton Hall #106conf+4.765%

Projected margin is from Butler's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.