Teams › SWAC · Compare Southern with another team
Southern
Southern returns 88% of last season's minutes and rates #269 on offense and #209 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -10.7 to +3.8.
Why we have them here
Southern's preseason projection of -3.5 (No. 235 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.6, about the -2.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 254 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.7, about its neighbours' -0.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.4. It returns 88% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (63%). The projection leans most on Michael Jacobs (+1.6), Malek Abdelgowad (+1.1) and AJ Barnes (+0.7); the newcomer who matters most is Andre Nunley, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.3. Its 80% range, -10.7 to +3.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 75% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 18%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 672 | Michael Jacobs | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Southern | 27 | +2.3 | +1.6 |
| 784 | Malek Abdelgowad | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Southern | 19 | +2.3 | +1.1 |
| 1029 | AJ Barnes | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Southern | 22 | +1.3 | +0.7 |
| 3062 | Andre Nunley | F | 5-10 | 3 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3485 | Jayce Depron | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Southern | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 |
| 3621 | R'Chaun King | F | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Alabama State | 14 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 3647 | Femi Olaniyan | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| 3734 | Jimma James | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| 3734 | Trey Shephard | F | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.0 | -0.5 | |
| 3810 | Rondae Hill | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Southern | 15 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| 4362 | Puoch Dobuol | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Southern | 11 | -2.7 | -0.7 |
| 4504 | Joe Manning | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Southern | 13 | -2.6 | -0.9 |
| 4542 | Lionel Bell | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Southern | 9 | -3.3 | -0.7 |
| 4713 | D'Mari Wiltz | G | 2 | Returning | Southern | 9 | -3.7 | -0.8 | |
| 5194 | Brandon Hardy | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Southern | 16 | -5.0 | -2.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  SMU #53 | -17.6 | 8% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  TCU #51 | -18.3 | 7% | |
| Sun Nov 08 | at |  Drake #104 | -11.0 | 19% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Iowa State #9 | -25.3 | 2% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  Minnesota #65 | -15.5 | 10% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  Nebraska #12 | -23.7 | 3% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | -21.0 | 5% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -6.5 | 30% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Oregon #58 | -16.0 | 10% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Pacific #175 | -6.8 | 29% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  California #115 | -10.9 | 19% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Texas Southern #331 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | +2.7 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | conf | +8.0 | 74% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | conf | +2.9 | 59% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Grambling #302 | conf | +6.0 | 68% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Mon Jan 25 | at |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | conf | +13.1 | 85% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Alcorn State #358 | conf | +11.0 | 81% |
| Mon Feb 01 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | conf | +10.8 | 81% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Alabama A&M #343 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at |  Alabama State #340 | conf | +2.1 | 57% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | +8.4 | 75% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Texas Southern #331 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Grambling #302 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Florida A&M #336 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Bethune-Cookman #220 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Alabama State #340 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Alabama A&M #343 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
Projected margin is from Southern's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.