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UTSA
UTSA returns 32% of last season's minutes and rates #223 on offense and #325 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -13.1 to +1.4.
Why we have them here
UTSA's preseason projection of -5.9 (No. 284 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.4, about the -3.1 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 351 at the end of 2025-26) adds -3.0, less than its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.7. It returns 32% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (70%). The projection leans most on Josiah LeGree (+1.0), Isaiah Coleman (+0.4) and Isaiah Watts (+0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Josiah LeGree, a transfer from Morehead State, at +1.0. Its 80% range, -13.1 to +1.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 32% · Transfer 61% · Freshman 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 819 | Josiah LeGree | G | 6-0 | 2 | Transfer | Morehead State | 17 | +2.3 | +1.0 |
| 1187 | Isaiah Coleman | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Oklahoma State | 19 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1232 | Isaiah Watts | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Maryland | 16 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1355 | KJ Tenner | G | 6-0 | 2 | Transfer | Murray State | 15 | +0.5 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | JJ Kelly | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Ohio | 22 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 2195 | Daniel Akitoby | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | UTSA | 12 | -0.6 | -0.2 |
| 2556 | Demari Williams | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Houston Christian | 18 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
| 2936 | Ashton Smith | F | 6-9 | 5 | Transfer | South Dakota | 5 | -2.0 | -0.2 |
| 3084 | Nasir Price | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -1.8 | -0.3 |
| 3251 | Jayson Peterson | F | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 3266 | Matheo Coffi | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | UTSA | 18 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
| 3823 | Jackson Fazande | F | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | UTSA | 3 | -4.0 | -0.3 |
| 4162 | Macaleab Rich | G | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | UTSA | 11 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| 4983 | Shey Eberwein | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | South Dakota | 11 | -4.1 | -1.2 |
| 5197 | Dorian Hayes | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UTSA | 21 | -4.4 | -2.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  San José State #187 | -8.4 | 25% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  VMI #350 | +9.0 | 77% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Seattle U #111 | -12.8 | 15% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Texas State #183 | +1.3 | 54% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Florida A&M #336 | +7.4 | 73% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Air Force #357 | +10.0 | 79% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | vs |  Army #314 | +6.3 | 69% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | at |  SIU Edwardsville #234 | -7.5 | 27% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  South Alabama #228 | -7.1 | 28% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  SMU #53 | -18.7 | 7% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Denver #240 | +3.3 | 60% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Minnesota #65 | -16.5 | 9% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Temple #149 | conf | -6.6 | 29% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -7.9 | 26% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  East Carolina #182 | conf | -5.8 | 32% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Charlotte #131 | conf | -7.7 | 26% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs |  Tulane #250 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Rice #262 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  South Florida #83 | conf | -8.3 | 25% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  North Texas #135 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -13.4 | 14% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs | Rice #262 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sun Feb 14 | vs |  Memphis #100 | conf | -6.1 | 31% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Tulane #250 | conf | -4.2 | 37% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Tulsa #82 | conf | -12.4 | 16% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | East Carolina #182 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | North Texas #135 | conf | -7.5 | 27% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at |  UAB #158 | conf | -6.6 | 30% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | Temple #149 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
Projected margin is from UTSA's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.