Teams › Mountain West · Compare UNLV with another team
UNLV
UNLV returns 34% of last season's minutes and rates #154 on offense and #142 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.6 to +8.9.
Why we have them here
UNLV's preseason projection of +1.6 (No. 139 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +0.3, about the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 143 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.4. It returns 34% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (50%). The projection leans most on MJ Thomas (+1.6), Tyrin Jones (+1.5) and Dontrez Williams (+0.5); the newcomer who matters most is MJ Thomas, a transfer from New Orleans, at +1.6. Its 80% range, -5.6 to +8.9, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 33% · Transfer 58% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 597 | MJ Thomas | F | 6-8 | 2 | Transfer | New Orleans | 23 | +2.8 | +1.6 |
| 613 | Tyrin Jones | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | UNLV | 21 | +2.8 | +1.5 |
| 1149 | Dontrez Williams | G | 6-5 | 2 | Transfer | Lindenwood | 23 | +0.9 | +0.5 |
| 1157 | Tyler Harris | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Vanderbilt | 11 | +1.3 | +0.4 |
| 1462 | Jackson Kiss | C | 6-8 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1630 | Alyn Breed | G | 6-3 | 6 | Transfer | NC State | 12 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1799 | AJ Storr | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Ole Miss | 19 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2258 | Terrance Ford Jr. | F | 6-1 | 4 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2258 | Xavier Brumfield | F | 6-1 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2443 | Sebastian Mack | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Missouri | 11 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2461 | Jeremy Foumena | C | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | UCF | 7 | -1.1 | -0.2 |
| 2575 | Jalen Cunningham | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | UNLV | 4 | -1.7 | -0.2 |
| 2753 | Kota Suttle | G | 6-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 3177 | Cam Miles | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Florida State | 10 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3181 | Al Green | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | UNLV | 9 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3845 | Walter Brown | F | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | UNLV | 14 | -1.7 | -0.6 |
| 4530 | Issac Williamson | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | UNLV | 16 | -2.4 | -1.0 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | +11.6 | 83% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Samford #190 | +7.8 | 74% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Stanford #69 | +0.6 | 52% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | N |  Kansas #10 | -14.4 | 12% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | +6.3 | 69% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  UT Rio Grande Valley #191 | +7.8 | 74% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  San Francisco #189 | -3.6 | 39% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  San Diego State #81 | -11.1 | 19% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Washington State #162 | +0.9 | 53% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  SMU #53 | -7.4 | 28% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | +9.6 | 78% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | +12.5 | 84% | |
| Tue Jan 05 | at |  Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -9.3 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  San José State #187 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  New Mexico #50 | conf | -4.9 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  UTEP #237 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  UC Davis #255 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Hawai'i #179 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Wyoming #121 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Nevada #66 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Air Force #357 | conf | +9.3 | 77% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | San José State #187 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Wyoming #121 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | New Mexico #50 | conf | -10.8 | 19% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | UTEP #237 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Grand Canyon #59 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Air Force #357 | conf | +13.3 | 86% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Nevada #66 | conf | -8.8 | 24% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | UC Davis #255 | conf | +7.0 | 71% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Hawai'i #179 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
Projected margin is from UNLV's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.