Teams › SWAC · Compare Alabama State with another team
Alabama State
Alabama State returns 67% of last season's minutes and rates #325 on offense and #326 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -17.0 to -2.3.
Why we have them here
Alabama State's preseason projection of -9.6 (No. 340 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.8, about the -5.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 317 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.0, about its neighbours' -2.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.1. It returns 67% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (75%). The projection leans most on Michael James (+0.0), Tyler Byrd (+0.0) and Micah Simpson (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Michael James, a transfer from Mississippi Valley State, at +0.0. Its 80% range, -17.0 to -2.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 57% · Transfer 23% · Other newcomer 15%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1661 | Michael James | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Mississippi Valley State | 28 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1701 | Tyler Byrd | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Alabama State | 23 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 2028 | Micah Simpson | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Alabama State | 26 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| 3741 | Damion Cox Jr. | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 4276 | Damarion Bonds | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.5 | -0.7 | |
| 4374 | Paul McMillan | G | 1 | Other newcomer | 11 | -2.7 | -0.7 | ||
| 4536 | Jordon Marshall | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Alabama State | 7 | -3.8 | -0.6 |
| 4766 | Mario Andrews | C | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Alabama State | 10 | -3.5 | -0.9 |
| 4818 | Tyler Mason | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Alabama State | 12 | -3.4 | -1.0 |
| 4895 | Tyler Mack | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Alabama State | 16 | -3.1 | -1.3 |
| 4956 | Kevin Alabi | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Alabama State | 8 | -4.6 | -1.0 |
| 5133 | JaSteven Walker | F | 6-10 | 3 | Returning | Alabama State | 13 | -4.9 | -1.5 |
| 5187 | Amaree Brown | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Southern Indiana | 18 | -4.6 | -2.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | -25.1 | 2% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  San José State #187 | -11.1 | 18% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  UC Davis #255 | -8.8 | 24% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Fresno State #221 | -10.7 | 19% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | at |  California #115 | -15.1 | 11% | |
| Mon Dec 07 | at |  Oklahoma #30 | -24.1 | 3% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  TCU #51 | -22.3 | 4% | |
| Sun Dec 13 | at |  Auburn #16 | -27.6 | 1% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  West Florida #304 | -7.8 | 27% | |
| Fri Dec 18 | at |  Air Force #357 | -1.7 | 45% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Hawai'i #179 | -12.3 | 16% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | conf | +13.7 | 87% |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | conf | +4.0 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Jackson State #355 | conf | -0.7 | 48% |
| Mon Jan 11 | at |  Alcorn State #358 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Alabama A&M #343 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | +2.4 | 58% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | conf | -8.3 | 25% |
| Mon Feb 01 | at |  Florida A&M #336 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Grambling #302 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs |  Southern #235 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Mon Feb 15 | at | Mississippi Valley State #365 | conf | +8.5 | 75% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Alabama A&M #343 | conf | +2.6 | 58% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at | Southern #235 | conf | -8.2 | 25% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | Grambling #302 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
Projected margin is from Alabama State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.