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Mount St. Mary's
Mount St. Mary's returns 58% of last season's minutes and rates #247 on offense and #153 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.9 to +5.5.
Why we have them here
Mount St. Mary's's preseason projection of -1.8 (No. 204 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.0, about the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 267 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.3, less than its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. It returns 58% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Arlandus Keyes (+3.2), Redd Thompson Jr. (+1.6) and Cade Orness (+0.0); the newcomer who matters most is Redd Thompson Jr., a transfer from Longwood, at +1.6. Its 80% range, -8.9 to +5.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 52% · Transfer 22% · Other newcomer 26%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 227 | Arlandus Keyes | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 27 | +4.7 | +3.2 |
| 610 | Redd Thompson Jr. | G | 6-0 | 2 | Transfer | Longwood | 23 | +2.8 | +1.6 |
| 1691 | Cade Orness | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Gonzaga | 5 | -0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1763 | Abdou Khadre Kébé | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 18 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 1920 | Wilguens Jr. Exacte | F | 6-6 | 4 | Transfer | Drake | 15 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 3006 | Julien Smith | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.8 | -0.3 | |
| 3103 | Justin May | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.9 | -0.3 | |
| 3185 | Jaxon Hartman | F | 6-3 | 2 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3277 | Miquel Llompart | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | |
| 3371 | Noah Rogers | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 4 | -2.7 | -0.3 |
| 3381 | Yakhya Diop | F | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 11 | -1.6 | -0.4 |
| 3477 | Liam Joyce | F | 6-6 | 2 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.1 | -0.4 | |
| 3628 | Ryan Brzezanski | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3628 | Noah Limol | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3873 | Crue Gard | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.5 | -0.5 | |
| 3878 | John Miller IV | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 4 | -3.5 | -0.3 |
| 4024 | Elijah Espinosa | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 5 | -3.2 | -0.4 |
| 4051 | Patrick Haigh | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 9 | -2.4 | -0.6 |
| 4497 | Anastasios Rozakeas | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 12 | -2.8 | -0.8 |
| 4809 | Mason So | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Mount St. Mary's | 15 | -3.0 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  Xavier #57 | -15.6 | 10% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Loyola Maryland #344 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Virginia Tech #45 | -16.9 | 9% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Lehigh #256 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Western Michigan #151 | +2.9 | 59% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | at |  Morgan State #348 | +0.5 | 52% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | vs |  Drexel #254 | +6.0 | 69% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | at |  Niagara #329 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  Canisius #346 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Thu Dec 10 | at |  Coppin State #364 | +5.0 | 66% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Creighton #41 | -16.9 | 8% | |
| Thu Dec 17 | at |  Nebraska #12 | -21.6 | 4% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Marist #205 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Manhattan #309 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Fri Jan 08 | at |  Rider #351 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Siena #208 | conf | +1.7 | 56% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  Sacred Heart #272 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Fairfield #248 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Mon Jan 18 | vs |  Saint Peter's #289 | conf | +4.5 | 64% |
| Fri Jan 22 | at | Manhattan #309 | conf | +1.9 | 56% |
| Sun Jan 24 | at |  Iona #282 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Fri Jan 29 | vs |  Merrimack #176 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at | Fairfield #248 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Fri Feb 05 | at | Siena #208 | conf | -1.9 | 44% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Rider #351 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Sacred Heart #272 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Fri Feb 19 | at | Marist #205 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at |  Quinnipiac #200 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Fri Feb 26 | vs | Canisius #346 | conf | +7.8 | 74% |
| Sun Feb 28 | vs | Niagara #329 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
Projected margin is from Mount St. Mary's's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.