Roster Math

Teams › MEAC · Compare Coppin State with another team

Coppin State

Coppin State returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #363 on offense and #361 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -24.4 to -9.8.

-17.2
Rating · #364 of 365
-10.6
Offense · #363
-6.6
Defense · #361
-24.4 to -9.8
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
7-22
Projected record · 3 to 11 wins
5-9
Projected in MEAC · 2 to 8 wins

Why we have them here

Coppin State's preseason projection of -17.2 (No. 364 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -8.7, less than the -7.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 362 at the end of 2025-26) adds -4.2, less than its neighbours' -3.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -4.6. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (81%). The projection leans most on Camaren Sparrow (-0.7), Josiah Brown (-0.9) and Khali Horton (-0.9). Its 80% range, -24.4 to -9.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 100%

Camaren Sparrow-0.7
Josiah Brown-0.9
Khali Horton-0.9
Hussain Williams-1.2
Demariontay Hall-1.3
Hassan Perkins-1.3
Daveyon Lydner-1.6
Jamari Piercy-1.6
Tyler Koenig-1.6
Nelson Lamizana-1.7
Torrin Andrews-1.8
Baasil Saunders-2.3
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
3799Camaren SparrowG6-43ReturningCoppin State17-1.5-0.7
4287Khali HortonF6-83ReturningCoppin State19-1.9-0.9
4738Hassan PerkinsG6-02ReturningCoppin State22-2.4-1.3
4747Demariontay HallF6-72ReturningCoppin State21-2.5-1.3
4769Hussain WilliamsG6-51ReturningCoppin State19-2.6-1.2
4811Josiah BrownG6-51ReturningCoppin State9-3.9-0.9
5078Jamari PiercyG6-51ReturningCoppin State17-3.7-1.6
5100Tyler KoenigF6-91ReturningCoppin State16-4.1-1.6
5116Torrin AndrewsG6-41ReturningCoppin State18-3.9-1.8
5125Nelson LamizanaF6-91ReturningCoppin State16-4.3-1.7
5146Daveyon LydnerG6-41ReturningCoppin State13-5.0-1.6
5236Baasil SaundersG6-41ReturningCoppin State13-6.9-2.3

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Tue Nov 03atVirginia Tech #45-28.11%
Fri Nov 06atGeorge Mason #107-20.45%
Thu Nov 12NBradley #194-11.218%
Sat Nov 14atSouth Florida #83-25.02%
Wed Nov 18atLa Salle #218-16.29%
Sat Nov 21atGeorgetown #84-22.53%
Tue Nov 24atVillanova #24-30.4<1%
Thu Dec 03atVCU #44-27.71%
Mon Dec 07vsMercyhurst #239-3.738%
Thu Dec 10vsMount St. Mary's #204-5.034%
Sun Dec 13atWest Virginia #48-26.32%
Thu Dec 17atLiberty #150-18.07%
Sat Dec 19atSaint Joseph's #129-19.46%
Tue Dec 22atJames Madison #147-18.37%
Tue Dec 29atUMBC #180-15.610%
Sat Jan 02vsDelaware State #363conf+2.458%
Sat Jan 09atNorth Carolina Central #353conf-6.430%
Mon Jan 11atSouth Carolina State #360conf-4.935%
Sat Jan 16vsMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf-0.349%
Sat Jan 23vsNorfolk State #300conf-4.835%
Mon Jan 25atHoward #196conf-12.715%
Sat Jan 30atMorgan State #348conf-7.328%
Sat Feb 06atDelaware State #363conf-2.542%
Sat Feb 13vsNorth Carolina Central #353conf-0.748%
Mon Feb 15vsSouth Carolina State #360conf+0.652%
Sat Feb 20atMaryland Eastern Shore #356conf-5.732%
Sat Feb 27atNorfolk State #300conf-10.819%
Mon Mar 01vsHoward #196conf-8.525%
Thu Mar 04vsMorgan State #348conf-1.446%

Projected margin is from Coppin State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.