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Niagara
Niagara returns 61% of last season's minutes and rates #308 on offense and #331 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.8 to -1.6.
Why we have them here
Niagara's preseason projection of -8.7 (No. 329 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.5, about the -5.5 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 341 at the end of 2025-26) adds -2.4, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.2. It returns 61% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Tae Blackshear (+0.1), Justin Hawkins (-0.1) and AJ McBride (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Tae Blackshear, a transfer from Youngstown State, at +0.1. Its 80% range, -15.8 to -1.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 61% · Transfer 22% · Other newcomer 17%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1478 | Tae Blackshear | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Youngstown State | 9 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1976 | Justin Hawkins | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 16 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2538 | Logan Woods | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Wright State | 11 | -1.0 | -0.3 |
| 2675 | Trenton Walters | G | 5-9 | 3 | Returning | Niagara | 14 | -0.9 | -0.3 |
| 2733 | Drew Larson | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 7 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3027 | Bastien Rieber | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Fresno State | 9 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3096 | Landon Williams | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 12 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| 3103 | Josiah Sabino | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Niagara | 12 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| 3468 | AJ McBride | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Niagara | 3 | -3.3 | -0.2 |
| 3476 | Samuele Miccoli | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.5 | -0.3 | |
| 3537 | Jackson Redmond | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.6 | -0.3 | |
| 3602 | Will Shortt | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Niagara | 11 | -1.7 | -0.5 |
| 3603 | Ruey Ruey | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.7 | -0.3 | |
| 3751 | Noah Slingerland | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.8 | -0.4 | |
| 3754 | Kabeya Tshibangu | C | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 6 | -2.6 | -0.4 |
| 3815 | Brian Angeletti | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3815 | Daniel Emokhare | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3868 | Reggie Prudhomme | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 16 | -1.7 | -0.7 |
| 3891 | Fidel Rotta | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -2.9 | -0.4 | |
| 3953 | Vukasin Todorovic | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Green Bay | 5 | -3.2 | -0.4 |
| 4003 | Brian Griffith | G | 5-10 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 7 | -2.6 | -0.5 |
| 4053 | Gael Dalmau | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Niagara | 3 | -4.1 | -0.3 |
| 5091 | Cole Farrell | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Long Beach State | 10 | -5.2 | -1.3 |
| 5193 | Justin Page | G | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | Niagara | 14 | -5.3 | -1.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at |  West Virginia #48 | -19.0 | 6% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Morgan State #348 | +6.4 | 70% | |
| Thu Nov 12 | at |  Bowling Green #266 | -8.1 | 25% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  Iowa State #9 | -26.1 | 2% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | at |  Delaware State #363 | +0.1 | 50% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  Lafayette #342 | -3.3 | 39% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  Le Moyne #217 | -4.2 | 36% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Maine #318 | -0.3 | 49% | |
| Fri Dec 04 | vs |  Mount St. Mary's #204 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Rider #351 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Fri Dec 18 | vs |  Binghamton #330 | +4.3 | 64% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | at |  Duquesne #156 | -11.7 | 17% | |
| Fri Jan 01 | at |  Sacred Heart #272 | conf | -5.0 | 34% |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  Marist #205 | conf | -6.6 | 29% |
| Fri Jan 08 | vs |  Iona #282 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Saint Peter's #289 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Quinnipiac #200 | conf | -6.5 | 30% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Merrimack #176 | conf | -6.9 | 28% |
| Fri Jan 22 | vs |  Siena #208 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Sun Jan 24 | vs |  Canisius #346 | conf | +2.9 | 60% |
| Fri Jan 29 | at |  Manhattan #309 | conf | -2.7 | 41% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at | Saint Peter's #289 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Fri Feb 05 | vs | Marist #205 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs | Quinnipiac #200 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | Canisius #346 | conf | -0.5 | 48% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Iona #282 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Fri Feb 19 | vs | Merrimack #176 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs |  Fairfield #248 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Fri Feb 26 | at | Rider #351 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | Mount St. Mary's #204 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
Projected margin is from Niagara's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.