Roster Math

Teams › Big Ten · Compare Nebraska with another team

Nebraska

Nebraska returns 42% of last season's minutes and rates #21 on offense and #10 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +13.4 to +28.0.

+20.7
Rating · #12 of 365
+10.6
Offense · #21
+10.0
Defense · #10
+13.4 to +28.0
80% range
67%
Chance of top 25
2%
Chance of No. 1
23-9
Projected record · 18 to 28 wins
13-7
Projected in Big Ten · 9 to 17 wins

Why we have them here

Nebraska's preseason projection of +20.7 (No. 12 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +12.2, more than the +11.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 18 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.4, about its neighbours' +3.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.7. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.0, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 42% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (34%). The projection leans most on Pryce Sandfort (+10.0), Trevan Leonhardt (+4.0) and Braden Frager (+2.9); the newcomer who matters most is Trevan Leonhardt, a transfer from Utah Valley, at +4.0. Its 80% range, +13.4 to +28.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 40% · Transfer 52% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 2%

Pryce Sandfort+10.0
Trevan Leonhardt+4.0
Braden Frager+2.9
Sam Orme+2.5
Taj DeGourville+1.4
Damon Wilkinson+1.2
Boden Kapke+0.9
Cale Jacobsen+0.5
Connor Essegian+0.5
Leo Curtis+0.1
Colin Rice+0.1
Will Cooper+0.0
Henry Burt+0.0
Jacob Lanier-0.1
Kadyn Betts-0.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
3Pryce SandfortF6-73ReturningNebraska30+13.2+10.0
131Trevan LeonhardtG6-43TransferUtah Valley26+6.0+4.0
220Braden FragerF6-71ReturningNebraska21+5.5+2.9
268Sam OrmeF6-92TransferBelmont20+5.1+2.5
591Taj DeGourvilleG6-52TransferSan Diego State17+3.4+1.4
715Damon WilkinsonC6-102TransferSouth Dakota State17+2.7+1.2
881Boden KapkeF6-113TransferBoston College19+1.9+0.9
1002Connor EssegianG6-44ReturningNebraska9+2.1+0.5
1069Cale JacobsenG6-43ReturningNebraska15+1.4+0.5
1369Leo CurtisF7-11ReturningNebraska5+0.9+0.1
1498Colin RiceF6-70FreshmanHigh school7+0.4+0.1
1695Will CooperF6-62Other newcomer2-0.2+0.0
1717Henry BurtF6-73Other newcomer2-0.3+0.0
2040Jacob LanierG6-50FreshmanHigh school6-0.7-0.1
3165Kadyn BettsF6-83TransferMontana4-2.4-0.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsLe Moyne #217+22.396%
Sat Nov 07NProvidence #49+6.169%
Wed Nov 11vsLindenwood #258+24.698%
Sun Nov 15NBoise State #87+9.277%
Wed Nov 18vsSouth Dakota #322+27.199%
Sun Nov 22NButler #86+9.277%
Wed Nov 25vsSouthern #235+23.797%
Wed Dec 02vsOhio State #27conf+6.470%
Sat Dec 05atCreighton #41-1.445%
Tue Dec 08atPenn State #89conf+5.868%
Sat Dec 12NMissouri #43+5.166%
Thu Dec 17vsMount St. Mary's #204+21.696%
Sun Dec 20vsFairleigh Dickinson #334+25.698%
Wed Dec 30vsNew Haven #326+24.998%
Sat Jan 02vsMichigan State #6conf+1.956%
Tue Jan 05vsMichigan #11conf+3.461%
Sun Jan 10atOregon #58conf+4.063%
Wed Jan 13atWashington #92conf+7.172%
Sat Jan 16vsIowa #33conf+6.972%
Tue Jan 19atIllinois #5conf-5.034%
Fri Jan 22vsUCLA #28conf+6.570%
Tue Jan 26atPurdue #38conf+1.555%
Sat Jan 30atIowa #33conf+0.351%
Sat Feb 06vsIndiana #55conf+9.578%
Tue Feb 09atMaryland #64conf+4.063%
Fri Feb 12vsPenn State #89conf+12.685%
Tue Feb 16vsRutgers #102conf+13.987%
Sat Feb 20atMichigan State #6conf-4.735%
Tue Feb 23vsUSC #35conf+8.074%
Sat Feb 27atNorthwestern #79conf+5.166%
Wed Mar 03atWisconsin #34conf+0.852%
Sun Mar 07vsMinnesota #65conf+10.180%

Projected margin is from Nebraska's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.