Roster Math

Teams › Big East · Compare Creighton with another team

Creighton

Creighton returns 43% of last season's minutes and rates #32 on offense and #80 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +6.2 to +20.5.

+13.3
Rating · #41 of 365
+9.5
Offense · #32
+3.8
Defense · #80
+6.2 to +20.5
80% range
19%
Chance of top 25
<1%
Chance of No. 1
18-12
Projected record · 13 to 23 wins
11-9
Projected in Big East · 7 to 15 wins

Why we have them here

Creighton's preseason projection of +13.3 (No. 41 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.1, about the +8.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 86 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.1, less than its neighbours' +2.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.5. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 43% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on BJ Davis (+3.9), Brody Robinson (+2.9) and Jasen Green (+2.7); the newcomer who matters most is BJ Davis, a transfer from San Diego State, at +3.9. Its 80% range, +6.2 to +20.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 43% · Transfer 49% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 2%

BJ Davis+3.9
Brody Robinson+2.9
Jasen Green+2.7
Oswin Erhunmwunse+2.5
Wes Enis+2.1
Austin Swartz+1.2
Isaac Traudt+1.1
Jackson McAndrew+0.4
Kayden Edwards+0.2
Katrelle Harmon+0.0
Hudson Greer+0.0
Trevon Carter-Givens+0.0
Fredrick King-0.1
Wesly Rosa-0.1
Shane Thomas-0.2
Fedor Zugic-0.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
78BJ DavisG6-23TransferSan Diego State19+8.1+3.9
264Jasen GreenF6-83ReturningCreighton22+4.9+2.7
291Oswin ErhunmwunseF6-102TransferProvidence21+4.8+2.5
295Brody RobinsonG5-114TransferOakland28+4.1+2.9
450Wes EnisG6-21TransferSouth Florida24+3.5+2.1
680Austin SwartzG6-42ReturningCreighton16+2.9+1.2
725Isaac TraudtF6-103ReturningCreighton15+2.9+1.1
1149Jackson McAndrewF6-102ReturningCreighton11+1.3+0.4
1272Kayden EdwardsG6-21TransferTCU6+1.2+0.2
1593Katrelle HarmonG6-30FreshmanHigh school7+0.1+0.0
1698Hudson GreerG6-71ReturningCreighton9-0.1+0.0
1759Trevon Carter-GivensC6-110FreshmanHigh school5-0.2+0.0
2381Fredrick KingC1Other newcomer2-2.2-0.1
2815Shane ThomasG6-32ReturningCreighton3-2.2-0.2
2855Wesly RosaC7-20Other newcomer2-2.8-0.1
3771Fedor ZugicG6-61ReturningCreighton10-2.0-0.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsKansas City #338+22.997%
Thu Nov 05vsLe Moyne #217+17.592%
Tue Nov 10atKansas State #99-0.150%
Sun Nov 15NIowa #33-0.947%
Wed Nov 18vsBethune-Cookman #220+17.892%
Tue Nov 24NMichigan #11-5.333%
Tue Dec 01vsOral Roberts #323+21.896%
Sat Dec 05vsNebraska #12+1.455%
Sat Dec 12vsGonzaga #14+1.956%
Tue Dec 15vsMount St. Mary's #204+16.992%
Sat Dec 19vsVillanova #24conf+0.552%
Tue Dec 22atXavier #57conf-1.645%
Thu Dec 31vsMarquette #47conf+4.163%
Sun Jan 03vsUConn #4conf-3.539%
Wed Jan 06atSeton Hall #106conf+3.260%
Sat Jan 09atGeorgetown #84conf+1.655%
Wed Jan 13vsDePaul #97conf+8.375%
Sat Jan 16vsSt. John's #21conf-0.150%
Wed Jan 20atMarquette #47conf-3.339%
Wed Jan 27atVillanova #24conf-6.430%
Sat Jan 30vsGeorgetown #84conf+7.272%
Wed Feb 03vsProvidence #49conf+4.464%
Sun Feb 07atUConn #4conf-9.921%
Wed Feb 10atSt. John's #21conf-6.829%
Sun Feb 14vsSeton Hall #106conf+9.378%
Wed Feb 17atButler #86conf+1.655%
Wed Feb 24vsXavier #57conf+5.367%
Sat Feb 27atDePaul #97conf+2.558%
Tue Mar 02vsButler #86conf+7.673%
Sat Mar 06atProvidence #49conf-2.442%

Projected margin is from Creighton's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.