Teams › Big 12 · Compare Baylor with another team
Baylor
Baylor returns 33% of last season's minutes and rates #18 on offense and #99 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +6.4 to +21.1.
Why we have them here
Baylor's preseason projection of +13.7 (No. 37 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.1, about the +8.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 55 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.2, about its neighbours' +2.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.6, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 33% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Isaac Celiscar (+4.8), Caden Powell (+2.7) and Kayden Mingo (+2.7); the newcomer who matters most is Isaac Celiscar, a transfer from Yale, at +4.8. Its 80% range, +6.4 to +21.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 27% · Transfer 51% · Freshman 15% · Other newcomer 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 66 | Isaac Celiscar | F | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | Yale | 27 | +7.3 | +4.8 |
| 251 | Caden Powell | C | 6-9 | 4 | Returning | Baylor | 22 | +5.0 | +2.7 |
| 306 | Kayden Mingo | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Penn State | 25 | +4.3 | +2.7 |
| 413 | Isaac Williams IV | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Baylor | 23 | +3.8 | +2.2 |
| 433 | Evan Chatman | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | UAB | 25 | +3.5 | +2.2 |
| 491 | Brett Decker Jr. | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Liberty | 26 | +3.1 | +2.0 |
| 776 | Dylan Mingo | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 18 | +2.4 | +1.1 |
| 1008 | Elijah Williams | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.8 | +0.5 |
| 1743 | James Goodis | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | Baylor | 4 | -0.2 | +0.0 |
| 2032 | Andre Iguodala II | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2077 | Maikcol Perez | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.0 | -0.1 | |
| 2082 | Drew Perry | G | 5-10 | 1 | Returning | Baylor | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 |
| 2167 | Mayo Soyoye | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2204 | Juslin Bodo Bodo | F | 6-11 | 3 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2351 | Tegra Makabu | C | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -2.1 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Northwestern State #277 | +19.8 | 95% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +25.8 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Yale #95 | +12.3 | 84% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | N |  Texas #20 | -3.3 | 40% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +26.6 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Alabama #17 | -4.1 | 37% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Memphis #100 | +13.7 | 86% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Queens University #142 | +16.2 | 90% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  Washington #92 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +34.8 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +10.7 | 80% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -7.8 | 26% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Houston #8 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Wed Jan 13 | at |  UCF #70 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +9.7 | 78% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  TCU #51 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Sat Jan 23 | N |  Louisville #7 | -6.0 | 31% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Colorado #85 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Utah #72 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  BYU #23 | conf | -8.2 | 26% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | UCF #70 | conf | +7.7 | 73% |
| Tue Feb 09 | vs |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | +4.7 | 65% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Colorado #85 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at |  Kansas #10 | conf | -10.3 | 20% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +5.0 | 66% |
| Tue Feb 23 | vs |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Arizona #3 | conf | -11.9 | 17% |
| Tue Mar 02 | at |  Arizona State #52 | conf | -1.7 | 44% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Kansas #10 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
Projected margin is from Baylor's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.