Roster Math

Teams › ASUN · Compare Stetson with another team

Stetson

Stetson returns 78% of last season's minutes and rates #237 on offense and #351 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.8 to -0.3.

-7.6
Rating · #311 of 365
-2.0
Offense · #237
-5.6
Defense · #351
-14.8 to -0.3
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
9-19
Projected record · 5 to 13 wins
6-8
Projected in ASUN · 3 to 9 wins

Why we have them here

Stetson's preseason projection of -7.6 (No. 311 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.0, about the -4.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 323 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, about its neighbours' -1.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.0. It returns 78% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (71%). The projection leans most on Collin Kuhl (+1.5), Mason Fuentes (-0.2) and Alec Oglesby (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Mason Fuentes, a freshman, recruit No. 167, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -14.8 to -0.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 78% · Transfer 16% · Freshman 6%

Collin Kuhl+1.5
Mason Fuentes-0.2
Alec Oglesby-0.3
Jake Johnson-0.4
Ben Gladieux-0.5
Isaac Jones-0.5
Miller McGowan-0.6
Thiago Sucatzky-0.7
Finley Sheridan-0.7
Janusz Ratowski-0.8
Calvin Sirmans III-0.9
Daniel Macgregor-1.1
J.R. Leonard-1.2
Sean Morgan-1.5
Alex Doyle-1.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
634Collin KuhlF6-83ReturningStetson22+2.8+1.5
2280Alec OglesbyG6-56TransferMiddle Tennessee19-0.6-0.3
2419Mason FuentesG6-20FreshmanHigh school12-0.9-0.2
2509Jake JohnsonG6-51ReturningStetson24-0.6-0.4
3854Finley SheridanF6-103ReturningStetson19-1.5-0.7
4071Thiago SucatzkyG5-101TransferFlorida International13-2.0-0.7
4311Calvin Sirmans IIIG5-81ReturningStetson19-1.9-0.9
4423Ben GladieuxG6-71ReturningStetson5-3.9-0.5
4489Isaac JonesG6-13ReturningStetson5-4.1-0.5
4589Miller McGowanG6-11ReturningStetson5-4.4-0.6
4699Janusz RatowskiF6-111ReturningStetson9-3.7-0.8
4834Daniel MacgregorG6-02ReturningStetson15-3.1-1.1
5098Alex DoyleF6-93ReturningStetson14-4.4-1.5
5102J.R. LeonardG6-41ReturningStetson9-5.6-1.2
5167Sean MorganG6-21ReturningStetson10-5.8-1.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atClemson #46-19.16%
Tue Nov 03atSouth Carolina #98-15.311%
Fri Nov 06atWest Virginia #48-19.46%
Thu Nov 12atHoward #196-8.923%
Thu Nov 19atLouisville #7-26.82%
Tue Nov 24atSouth Florida #83-17.58%
Sat Dec 05atMiami #18-24.22%
Mon Dec 14atCincinnati #42-21.14%
Wed Dec 16atWright State #165-10.719%
Sat Dec 19vsAbilene Christian #192+1.254%
Mon Dec 21vsTarleton State #257+3.360%
Mon Dec 28atCentral Arkansas #181-10.819%
Wed Dec 30atLittle Rock #320-4.536%
Sat Jan 02vsUT Arlington #211+1.655%
Sat Jan 09vsFlorida Gulf Coast #299conf+1.756%
Thu Jan 14atLipscomb #118conf-10.320%
Sat Jan 16atBellarmine #305conf-2.841%
Thu Jan 21vsQueens University #142conf-3.938%
Sat Jan 23vsWest Florida #304conf+1.956%
Thu Jan 28atNorth Florida #321conf-1.545%
Sat Jan 30atJacksonville #253conf-5.433%
Sat Feb 06atFlorida Gulf Coast #299conf-2.542%
Thu Feb 11vsBellarmine #305conf+1.956%
Sat Feb 13vsLipscomb #118conf-5.134%
Thu Feb 18atWest Florida #304conf-3.140%
Sat Feb 20atQueens University #142conf-9.023%
Thu Feb 25vsJacksonville #253conf-0.150%
Sat Feb 27vsNorth Florida #321conf+3.160%

Projected margin is from Stetson's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.