Teams › American · Compare Memphis with another team
Memphis
Memphis returns 18% of last season's minutes and rates #95 on offense and #122 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -2.1 to +12.4.
Why we have them here
Memphis's preseason projection of +5.2 (No. 100 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.1, about the +2.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 167 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.0, less than its neighbours' +0.9; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.8. It returns 18% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (47%). The projection leans most on Luke Almodovar (+1.5), Tylik Weeks (+1.3) and Julius Thedford (+1.3); the newcomer who matters most is Luke Almodovar, a transfer from Southeast Missouri State, at +1.5. Its 80% range, -2.1 to +12.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 18% · Transfer 74% · Freshman 7%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 608 | Luke Almodovar | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | Southeast Missouri State | 22 | +2.8 | +1.5 |
| 622 | Julius Thedford | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Memphis | 16 | +3.3 | +1.3 |
| 730 | Tylik Weeks | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Southern Miss | 24 | +2.2 | +1.3 |
| 816 | Jayden Reid | G | 5-10 | 3 | Transfer | Northwestern | 19 | +2.2 | +1.0 |
| 840 | Rihards Vavers | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Washington State | 20 | +2.0 | +1.0 |
| 1087 | Brandin Cummings | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Pittsburgh | 17 | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| 1118 | Corneilous Williams | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | North Alabama | 22 | +1.0 | +0.6 |
| 1505 | Jerry Deng | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | NC State | 8 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1565 | Fred Smith Jr. | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 8 | +0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1605 | Maxim Logue | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Florida Atlantic | 8 | +0.1 | +0.0 |
| 1869 | Cello Jackson | F | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2108 | Josh Holloway | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Texas A&M | 9 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 3117 | Mason Matthews | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Memphis | 3 | -2.6 | -0.2 |
| 3471 | William Whorton | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Memphis | 6 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| 3727 | Hasan Abdul Hakim | G | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Memphis | 12 | -1.8 | -0.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  Iowa State #9 | -11.8 | 17% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  VCU #44 | +0.8 | 53% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | at |  Vanderbilt #26 | -14.5 | 12% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Louisville #7 | -5.9 | 32% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  Evansville #317 | +15.5 | 90% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Penn State #89 | -1.1 | 46% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Dayton #74 | -2.6 | 42% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Jackson State #355 | +19.9 | 94% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Baylor #37 | -13.7 | 14% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  Grand Canyon #59 | +2.7 | 59% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | at |  Texas #20 | -16.2 | 10% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | +15.9 | 90% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  East Carolina #182 | conf | +7.5 | 73% |
| Sun Jan 03 | at |  South Florida #83 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Rice #262 | conf | +10.0 | 79% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Thu Jan 14 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sun Jan 17 | at |  UAB #158 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Charlotte #131 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  North Texas #135 | conf | +5.3 | 66% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at | Wichita State #62 | conf | -5.9 | 32% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Tulane #250 | conf | +3.5 | 61% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs | UAB #158 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Charlotte #131 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Sun Feb 14 | at |  UTSA #284 | conf | +6.1 | 69% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | North Texas #135 | conf | +0.0 | 50% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Utah State #29 | -1.0 | 47% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs |  Tulsa #82 | conf | +1.3 | 54% |
| Sun Feb 28 | vs | South Florida #83 | conf | +1.4 | 54% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at |  Temple #149 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sun Mar 07 | vs | Tulane #250 | conf | +9.6 | 78% |
Projected margin is from Memphis's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.