Roster Math

Teams › NEC · Compare Fairleigh Dickinson with another team

Fairleigh Dickinson

Fairleigh Dickinson returns 93% of last season's minutes and rates #307 on offense and #341 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.9 to -2.1.

-9.4
Rating · #334 of 365
-4.2
Offense · #307
-5.2
Defense · #341
-16.9 to -2.1
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-19
Projected record · 6 to 15 wins
7-9
Projected in NEC · 4 to 11 wins

Why we have them here

Fairleigh Dickinson's preseason projection of -9.4 (No. 334 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.6, about the -5.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 316 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.2. It returns 93% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Joey Niesman (+0.9), Arthur Cox (+0.3) and Travis Torain (-0.5); the newcomer who matters most is Travis Torain, a transfer from Austin Peay, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -16.9 to -2.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 81% · Transfer 7% · Other newcomer 12%

Joey Niesman+0.9
Arthur Cox+0.3
Travis Torain-0.5
Cole Alexander-0.6
Tyler McQuaid-0.6
Andrew Canda-0.6
Sebastian Haubro-0.7
Chid Ekwommadu-0.8
Kody Frey-0.9
Josiah Francis-1.0
Ras Elijah Godbolt-1.1
David Jevtic-1.4
Raysean Johnson-1.5
Noah Melson-2.4
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
997Joey NiesmanG6-21ReturningFairleigh Dickinson29+1.2+0.9
1295Arthur CoxF6-81ReturningFairleigh Dickinson21+0.6+0.3
3479Travis TorainG6-81TransferAustin Peay14-1.5-0.5
4053Andrew CandaF6-02Other newcomer12-2.1-0.6
4369Cole AlexanderF6-73ReturningFairleigh Dickinson7-3.4-0.6
4412Tyler McQuaidG6-01ReturningFairleigh Dickinson7-3.4-0.6
4454Chid EkwommaduG6-62ReturningFairleigh Dickinson11-2.8-0.8
4513Sebastian HaubroF6-101ReturningFairleigh Dickinson9-3.2-0.7
4545Kody FreyG6-60Other newcomer13-2.8-0.9
4839Ras Elijah GodboltG6-01ReturningFairleigh Dickinson14-3.2-1.1
4847David JevticG6-81ReturningFairleigh Dickinson20-2.7-1.4
4884Josiah FrancisG6-82ReturningFairleigh Dickinson10-3.9-1.0
4994Raysean JohnsonG6-11ReturningFairleigh Dickinson18-3.3-1.5
5232Noah MelsonG6-63ReturningFairleigh Dickinson16-6.1-2.4

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atIllinois #5-27.21%
Wed Nov 04atButler #86-16.98%
Wed Nov 11atEast Texas A&M #319-6.031%
Fri Nov 13atOklahoma #30-22.33%
Wed Nov 18vsNJIT #347+6.971%
Mon Nov 23atIona #282-8.126%
Mon Nov 30vsBinghamton #330+5.166%
Fri Dec 04vsLafayette #342+5.968%
Mon Dec 07atFordham #125-12.216%
Wed Dec 09atVillanova #24-23.63%
Fri Dec 18atLoyola Maryland #344-3.240%
Sun Dec 20atNebraska #12-25.62%
Tue Dec 22atIndiana #55-20.25%
Tue Dec 29atVillanova #24-23.63%
Mon Jan 04atStonehill #354conf+0.050%
Fri Jan 08vsChicago State #337conf+2.759%
Sun Jan 10atLong Island University #210conf-7.627%
Thu Jan 14vsLe Moyne #217conf-2.143%
Sat Jan 16vsMercyhurst #239conf-1.246%
Thu Jan 21atNew Haven #326conf-1.944%
Sat Jan 23atCentral Connecticut #316conf-2.442%
Thu Jan 28vsWagner #291conf+0.652%
Sat Jan 30vsStonehill #354conf+4.865%
Wed Feb 03vsCentral Connecticut #316conf+1.655%
Sat Feb 06atChicago State #337conf-2.043%
Thu Feb 11vsNew Haven #326conf+2.057%
Wed Feb 17atWagner #291conf-3.838%
Sat Feb 20vsLong Island University #210conf-2.243%
Thu Feb 25atMercyhurst #239conf-6.729%
Sat Feb 27atLe Moyne #217conf-7.527%

Projected margin is from Fairleigh Dickinson's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.