Teams › Pac-12 · Compare Boise State with another team
Boise State
Boise State returns 41% of last season's minutes and rates #102 on offense and #79 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -0.1 to +14.6.
Why we have them here
Boise State's preseason projection of +7.2 (No. 87 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.2, less than the +3.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 82 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.2, about its neighbours' +1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.3. It returns 41% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Pearson Carmichael (+1.7), Lamar Washington (+1.5) and Damari Wheeler-Thomas (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Lamar Washington, a transfer from Georgia Tech, at +1.5. Its 80% range, -0.1 to +14.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 41% · Transfer 53% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 532 | Pearson Carmichael | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Boise State | 21 | +3.2 | +1.7 |
| 673 | Lamar Washington | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Georgia Tech | 26 | +2.4 | +1.5 |
| 856 | Damari Wheeler-Thomas | G | 6-0 | 4 | Transfer | North Dakota State | 28 | +1.7 | +1.2 |
| 994 | Jerquarius Stanback | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Alabama State | 25 | +1.3 | +0.8 |
| 1011 | Dovydas Butka | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Campbell | 28 | +1.2 | +0.8 |
| 1546 | Spencer Ahrens | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Boise State | 14 | +0.2 | +0.1 |
| 1557 | Bhan Buom | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Boise State | 8 | +0.2 | +0.0 |
| 1778 | Ethan Lathan | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Boise State | 6 | -0.3 | +0.0 |
| 2174 | Brennan Ramirez | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | Boise State | 5 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| 2315 | Rayzhon Bergersen | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Boise State | 5 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2339 | Ty Rodgers | F | 6-6 | 4 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2504 | Julian Bowie | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Boise State | 7 | -1.2 | -0.2 |
| 3353 | Brady Hennig | G | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
| 4270 | Aginaldo Neto | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Boise State | 18 | -2.0 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Butler #86 | +6.5 | 70% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Oakland #159 | +11.4 | 82% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | N |  Nebraska #12 | -9.2 | 23% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Sam Houston #185 | +12.4 | 84% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Idaho State #261 | +14.1 | 88% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Drake #104 | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  North Texas #135 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N | North Texas #135 | +3.4 | 61% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Wichita State #62 | -7.4 | 27% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Texas A&M-Corpus Christi #145 | +10.6 | 81% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Utah Valley #112 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Santa Clara #63 | +4.8 | 65% | |
| Wed Dec 23 | N |  New Mexico #50 | -3.5 | 39% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Lamar #238 | +13.6 | 87% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Utah State #29 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Oregon State #93 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Washington State #162 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Gonzaga #14 | conf | -12.5 | 16% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Fresno State #221 | conf | +4.3 | 63% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  San Diego State #81 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs | Utah State #29 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Texas State #183 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Oregon State #93 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs | Gonzaga #14 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Fresno State #221 | conf | +10.1 | 79% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at |  Colorado State #67 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Texas State #183 | conf | +8.9 | 76% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Washington State #162 | conf | +1.2 | 54% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | Colorado State #67 | conf | +1.8 | 56% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | San Diego State #81 | conf | -3.6 | 39% |
Projected margin is from Boise State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.