Teams › Big 12 · Compare TCU with another team
TCU
TCU returns 60% of last season's minutes and rates #65 on offense and #35 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +4.6 to +19.2.
Why we have them here
TCU's preseason projection of +11.9 (No. 51 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.0, more than the +7.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 52 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.0, about its neighbours' +1.7; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.4, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 60% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Xavier Edmonds (+5.3), Micah Robinson (+3.5) and Brock Harding (+3.1); the newcomer who matters most is Gavin Sykes, a transfer from Long Beach State, at +2.4. Its 80% range, +4.6 to +19.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 60% · Transfer 30% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | Xavier Edmonds | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | TCU | 26 | +8.2 | +5.3 |
| 180 | Micah Robinson | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | TCU | 28 | +5.1 | +3.5 |
| 258 | Brock Harding | G | 6-0 | 3 | Returning | TCU | 28 | +4.3 | +3.1 |
| 430 | Gavin Sykes | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Long Beach State | 29 | +3.3 | +2.4 |
| 842 | Luke Bamgboye | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Texas Tech | 16 | +2.2 | +0.9 |
| 1081 | Tanner Toolson | G | 6-5 | 4 | Returning | TCU | 20 | +1.2 | +0.6 |
| 1414 | Jace Posey | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | TCU | 12 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1480 | DJ Thomas | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | West Virginia | 16 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1800 | Drew McElroy | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | TCU | 5 | -0.4 | +0.0 |
| 2056 | Sam Fleming | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2071 | Trent Lincoln | G | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -0.9 | -0.1 | |
| 2193 | Milos Sojic | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2209 | Ricards Aizpurs | G | 6-6 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2306 | Ryan Hunt | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Lindenwood #258 | +19.1 | 94% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Southern #235 | +18.3 | 93% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | +25.8 | 98% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  Milwaukee #242 | +17.7 | 92% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Texas A&M #31 | +5.0 | 66% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Miami #18 | -4.8 | 35% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Notre Dame #75 | -3.3 | 40% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Alabama State #340 | +22.3 | 96% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Clemson #46 | +6.1 | 69% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Holy Cross #352 | +22.9 | 97% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Houston Christian #273 | +18.0 | 93% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +21.3 | 96% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Houston #8 | conf | -11.6 | 17% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Tue Jan 12 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | -4.6 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Baylor #37 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Colorado #85 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Arizona State #52 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at |  Arizona #3 | conf | -13.2 | 14% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Tue Feb 16 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | BYU #23 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Kansas #10 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -10.7 | 19% |
| Wed Mar 03 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs |  UCF #70 | conf | +5.9 | 68% |
Projected margin is from TCU's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.