Roster Math

Teams › OVC · Compare Lindenwood with another team

Lindenwood

Lindenwood returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #296 on offense and #207 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -11.5 to +3.0.

-4.3
Rating · #258 of 365
-3.8
Offense · #296
-0.4
Defense · #207
-11.5 to +3.0
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
12-14
Projected record · 7 to 18 wins
9-7
Projected in OVC · 5 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

Lindenwood's preseason projection of -4.3 (No. 258 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -2.2, about the -2.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 205 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.5, about its neighbours' -0.8; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.9. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (68%). The projection leans most on Anias Futrell (+3.0), Xavier Spencer (+1.0) and Jeremiah Talton (+0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Xavier Spencer, a transfer from UMass Lowell, at +1.0. Its 80% range, -11.5 to +3.0, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 64% · Transfer 23% · Other newcomer 13%

Anias Futrell+3.0
Xavier Spencer+1.0
Jeremiah Talton+0.1
William Campbell-0.3
Daniel Kwon-0.3
Miles White-0.3
Kellen Robinson-0.4
Tidiane d'Almeida-0.4
Todd Bieg-0.5
Makhan Diouf-0.5
Jaylon McDaniel-0.5
Kevin Anthony-0.7
Clayton Jackson-1.1
Matar Diop-1.6
Mekhi Cooper-1.6
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
262Anias FutrellG6-52ReturningLindenwood28+4.4+3.0
952Xavier SpencerG6-11TransferUMass Lowell29+1.4+1.0
1419Jeremiah TaltonF6-63ReturningLindenwood13+0.4+0.1
3162Miles WhiteF6-32Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3165William CampbellG6-41ReturningLindenwood8-1.7-0.3
3188Daniel KwonF6-40Other newcomer8-1.7-0.3
3203Kellen RobinsonF6-30Other newcomer9-1.7-0.4
3549Tidiane d'AlmeidaG6-11ReturningLindenwood9-1.9-0.4
3883Todd BiegF6-61ReturningLindenwood8-2.3-0.5
4010Jaylon McDanielF6-73ReturningLindenwood9-2.4-0.5
4211Makhan DioufF6-111TransferFresno State7-2.9-0.5
4346Kevin AnthonyC6-101ReturningLindenwood9-2.9-0.7
4552Clayton JacksonG6-22ReturningLindenwood21-2.2-1.1
4962Mekhi CooperG6-03ReturningLindenwood23-2.8-1.6
5189Matar DiopF6-103TransferStetson11-6.1-1.6

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atTCU #51-19.16%
Wed Nov 11atNebraska #12-24.62%
Fri Nov 13atOmaha #274-4.735%
Tue Nov 17atNorthern Iowa #88-13.314%
Tue Nov 24NNew Haven #326+3.060%
Wed Nov 25atStony Brook #283-4.935%
Mon Nov 30atMissouri State #201-6.929%
Sat Dec 05vsOmaha #274+6.470%
Sat Dec 12vsNorthern Illinois #333+9.478%
Sat Dec 19atKansas City #338-2.243%
Mon Dec 21atKansas State #99-13.614%
Wed Dec 30atSIU Edwardsville #234conf-3.639%
Sat Jan 02vsUT Martin #271conf+3.160%
Thu Jan 07atSouthern Indiana #315conf+1.153%
Sat Jan 09atMorehead State #265conf-2.542%
Thu Jan 14vsSoutheast Missouri State #219conf+1.254%
Sat Jan 16atEastern Illinois #324conf+0.652%
Thu Jan 21vsTennessee State #154conf-1.146%
Thu Jan 28vsMorehead State #265conf+2.859%
Sat Jan 30vsEastern Illinois #324conf+5.667%
Thu Feb 04atTennessee State #154conf-6.431%
Sat Feb 06atUT Martin #271conf-1.446%
Thu Feb 11atWestern Illinois #362conf+7.172%
Sat Feb 13vsSouthern Indiana #315conf+5.266%
Wed Feb 17atSoutheast Missouri State #219conf-4.038%
Sat Feb 20vsSIU Edwardsville #234conf+1.956%
Sat Feb 27vsWestern Illinois #362conf+11.282%

Projected margin is from Lindenwood's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.