Teams › Big 12 · Compare Cincinnati with another team
Cincinnati
Cincinnati returns 1% of last season's minutes and rates #59 on offense and #22 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +5.8 to +20.4.
Why we have them here
Cincinnati's preseason projection of +13.1 (No. 42 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +8.4, about the +8.2 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 53 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.7, less than its neighbours' +2.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.5, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 1% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Trevian Carson (+3.4), MJ Collins Jr. (+2.8) and Tylen Riley (+2.3); the newcomer who matters most is Trevian Carson, a transfer from North Dakota State, at +3.4. Its 80% range, +5.8 to +20.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 1% · Transfer 96% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 161 | Trevian Carson | G | 6-3 | 1 | Transfer | North Dakota State | 23 | +5.9 | +3.4 |
| 260 | MJ Collins Jr. | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Utah State | 24 | +4.7 | +2.8 |
| 339 | Tylen Riley | G | 6-3 | 3 | Transfer | Tulsa | 20 | +4.7 | +2.3 |
| 478 | Riley Allenspach | F | 6-11 | 3 | Transfer | George Mason | 19 | +3.8 | +1.7 |
| 487 | Jayden Hastings | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Boston College | 15 | +4.1 | +1.6 |
| 517 | Tyler Tejada | G | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | Towson | 24 | +3.1 | +1.9 |
| 596 | Eric Mahaffey | G | 6-6 | 1 | Transfer | Akron | 15 | +3.5 | +1.3 |
| 730 | Elijah Perryman | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Utah State | 10 | +3.4 | +0.9 |
| 1003 | Myles Colvin | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Wake Forest | 17 | +1.5 | +0.7 |
| 1086 | Adlan Elamin | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Utah State | 12 | +1.5 | +0.4 |
| 2037 | David Iweze | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2080 | Deshaun Vaden | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -1.1 | -0.1 | |
| 2392 | Grant Darbyshire | G | 6-2 | 3 | Returning | Cincinnati | 2 | -1.9 | -0.1 |
| 2998 | Akai Fleming | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Georgia Tech | 14 | -1.2 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  American University #188 | +16.4 | 91% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Green Bay #281 | +18.9 | 94% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Minnesota #65 | +8.8 | 76% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | at |  Dayton #74 | -3.2 | 40% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Youngstown State #215 | +17.3 | 92% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | vs |  UMass Lowell #287 | +20.3 | 95% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  Georgia #32 | -1.3 | 46% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Boston College #114 | +6.7 | 71% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  Monmouth #216 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  Xavier #57 | +8.7 | 76% | |
| Mon Dec 14 | vs |  Stetson #311 | +21.1 | 96% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Clemson #46 | +6.9 | 71% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Marist #205 | +16.9 | 92% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | +18.0 | 93% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  BYU #23 | conf | -8.7 | 24% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Utah #72 | conf | -1.4 | 45% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  TCU #51 | conf | +4.6 | 65% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Tue Jan 19 | vs |  Kansas #10 | conf | -2.2 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Colorado #85 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +4.8 | 65% |
| Tue Feb 02 | vs |  Arizona #3 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Baylor #37 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  UCF #70 | conf | +6.8 | 71% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -9.9 | 21% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +9.8 | 78% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | West Virginia #48 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Texas Tech #15 | conf | -8.3 | 25% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Houston #8 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Kansas State #99 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
Projected margin is from Cincinnati's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.