Teams › Big 12 · Compare Arizona with another team
Arizona
Arizona returns 35% of last season's minutes and rates #12 on offense and #2 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +16.5 to +31.6.
Why we have them here
Arizona's preseason projection of +24.1 (No. 3 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +13.5, more than the +12.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 3 at the end of 2025-26) adds +5.2, more than its neighbours' +4.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +4.3. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +1.2, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 35% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (38%). The projection leans most on Motiejus Krivas (+7.8), RJ Godfrey (+4.8) and Caleb Holt (+4.5); the newcomer who matters most is RJ Godfrey, a transfer from Clemson, at +4.8. Its 80% range, +16.5 to +31.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 34% · Transfer 44% · Freshman 19% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Motiejus Krivas | C | 7-2 | 3 | Returning | Arizona | 28 | +11.2 | +7.8 |
| 62 | RJ Godfrey | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | Clemson | 25 | +7.6 | +4.8 |
| 74 | Caleb Holt | G | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 25 | +7.2 | +4.5 |
| 118 | Ivan Kharchenkov | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Arizona | 28 | +6.0 | +4.2 |
| 466 | Derek Dixon | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | North Carolina | 23 | +3.5 | +2.0 |
| 606 | JJ Mandaquit | G | 6-1 | 1 | Transfer | Washington | 18 | +3.1 | +1.4 |
| 1013 | Ugnius Jarusevicius | F | 6-11 | 4 | Transfer | Nebraska | 10 | +2.0 | +0.5 |
| 1032 | Cameron Holmes | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 12 | +1.7 | +0.5 |
| 1317 | Jackson Cook | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Arizona | 5 | +1.1 | +0.1 |
| 1393 | Addison Arnold | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Arizona | 6 | +0.7 | +0.1 |
| 1552 | Bryce James | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1569 | Joaquin Rigdon | G | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.4 | +0.0 | |
| 1594 | Maksim Brnovic | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 1 | +0.3 | +0.0 | |
| 1607 | Endurance Aiyamenkhue | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 1607 | Mabil Mawut | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | +0.2 | +0.0 | |
| 2308 | Evan Otten | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | Idaho State | 13 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | N |  UCLA #28 | +5.9 | 68% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | vs |  Cal Poly #223 | +28.7 | 99% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Northern Arizona #307 | +28.7 | >99% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Auburn #16 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  UConn #4 | +7.9 | 74% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Colorado State #67 | +9.9 | 79% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  New Orleans #303 | +30.5 | >99% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  St. John's #21 | -2.4 | 42% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Tennessee Tech #280 | +28.7 | 99% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Arkansas #25 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | vs |  Northern Illinois #333 | +31.4 | >99% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Incarnate Word #308 | +29.2 | >99% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Iowa State #9 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  UCF #70 | conf | +15.6 | 89% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Kansas State #99 | conf | +11.4 | 82% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  BYU #23 | conf | +9.0 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Arizona State #52 | conf | +13.4 | 86% |
| Fri Jan 22 | at |  Texas Tech #15 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Utah #72 | conf | +15.1 | 89% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  West Virginia #48 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Tue Feb 02 | at |  Cincinnati #42 | conf | +3.9 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Houston #8 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Mon Feb 08 | vs |  TCU #51 | conf | +13.2 | 86% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | Arizona State #52 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | conf | +9.9 | 78% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Kansas #10 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Mon Feb 22 | at | BYU #23 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Baylor #37 | conf | +11.9 | 83% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Colorado #85 | conf | +16.5 | 91% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Houston #8 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
Projected margin is from Arizona's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.