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New Haven
New Haven returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #324 on offense and #296 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.9 to -1.4.
Why we have them here
New Haven's preseason projection of -8.6 (No. 326 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.6, about the -5.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 307 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.4. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Aidan Losiewicz (-0.1), Dior Kennedy (-0.3) and Dominick LaDuca (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is John Oladipo, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -15.9 to -1.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 81% · Other newcomer 19%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2109 | Aidan Losiewicz | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 10 | -0.6 | -0.1 |
| 2867 | Teshaun Steele | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 17 | -1.0 | -0.4 |
| 2962 | Dior Kennedy | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 7 | -1.6 | -0.3 |
| 3447 | Dominick LaDuca | G | 5-7 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 7 | -2.1 | -0.4 |
| 3592 | Timothy Coleman | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 7 | -2.2 | -0.4 |
| 3691 | Maison Adeleye | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | New Haven | 16 | -1.6 | -0.6 |
| 3781 | Justice Hanna | F | 6-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.1 | -0.5 | |
| 3801 | Kyle Kearson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 9 | -2.1 | -0.5 |
| 3833 | John Oladipo | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.2 | -0.5 | |
| 3912 | Owen Hotaling | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.2 | -0.5 | |
| 4044 | Matiss Ogle | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.4 | -0.6 | |
| 4180 | Jagger Bascombe | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | New Haven | 7 | -3.0 | -0.5 |
| 4207 | Stefano Faloppa | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | New Haven | 21 | -1.7 | -0.9 |
| 4275 | Nathan Narcisse | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 6 | -3.4 | -0.5 |
| 4435 | Tristan Burth | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 9 | -3.0 | -0.7 |
| 4758 | Zoumana Traore | G | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 10 | -3.7 | -0.9 |
| 4842 | Najimi George | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 25 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| 4947 | Vere Anthony | G | 6-0 | 1 | Returning | New Haven | 11 | -3.9 | -1.1 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | at | -17.8 | 7% | ||
| Fri Nov 06 | at | -14.4 | 12% | ||
| Tue Nov 10 | vs | +3.9 | 63% | ||
| Sun Nov 15 | at | -16.4 | 9% | ||
| Sat Nov 21 | vs | +5.0 | 66% | ||
| Tue Nov 24 | N | -3.0 | 40% | ||
| Tue Dec 01 | at | +0.2 | 51% | ||
| Fri Dec 04 | vs | -1.1 | 47% | ||
| Wed Dec 09 | vs | +6.2 | 70% | ||
| Fri Dec 18 | at | -7.2 | 28% | ||
| Sun Dec 20 | at | -13.1 | 14% | ||
| Wed Dec 30 | at | -24.9 | 2% | ||
| Sat Jan 02 | vs | conf | -1.7 | 44% | |
| Mon Jan 04 | vs | conf | -2.8 | 41% | |
| Fri Jan 08 | vs | conf | +0.0 | 50% | |
| Thu Jan 14 | at | conf | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | at | conf | -1.5 | 45% | |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs | conf | +1.9 | 56% | |
| Sat Jan 23 | at | conf | -7.0 | 28% | |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | conf | +0.5 | 52% | |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs | conf | +1.0 | 53% | |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs | conf | -2.7 | 41% | |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | conf | -3.3 | 39% | |
| Thu Feb 11 | at | conf | -2.0 | 43% | |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | conf | +2.1 | 57% | |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | conf | -6.9 | 29% | |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | conf | -6.2 | 31% | |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
Projected margin is from New Haven's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.