Roster Math

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New Haven

New Haven returns 100% of last season's minutes and rates #324 on offense and #296 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.9 to -1.4.

-8.6
Rating · #326 of 365
-5.3
Offense · #324
-3.3
Defense · #296
-15.9 to -1.4
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
11-17
Projected record · 6 to 16 wins
7-9
Projected in NEC · 4 to 10 wins

Why we have them here

New Haven's preseason projection of -8.6 (No. 326 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.6, about the -5.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 307 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.9, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.4. It returns 100% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (74%). The projection leans most on Aidan Losiewicz (-0.1), Dior Kennedy (-0.3) and Dominick LaDuca (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is John Oladipo, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.5. Its 80% range, -15.9 to -1.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 81% · Other newcomer 19%

Aidan Losiewicz-0.1
Dior Kennedy-0.3
Dominick LaDuca-0.4
Timothy Coleman-0.4
Teshaun Steele-0.4
John Oladipo-0.5
Kyle Kearson-0.5
Justice Hanna-0.5
Jagger Bascombe-0.5
Owen Hotaling-0.5
Nathan Narcisse-0.5
Matiss Ogle-0.6
Maison Adeleye-0.6
Tristan Burth-0.7
Zoumana Traore-0.9
Stefano Faloppa-0.9
Vere Anthony-1.1
Najimi George-1.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
2109Aidan LosiewiczG6-31ReturningNew Haven10-0.6-0.1
2867Teshaun SteeleG6-71ReturningNew Haven17-1.0-0.4
2962Dior KennedyG6-21ReturningNew Haven7-1.6-0.3
3447Dominick LaDucaG5-71ReturningNew Haven7-2.1-0.4
3592Timothy ColemanF6-71ReturningNew Haven7-2.2-0.4
3691Maison AdeleyeG6-32ReturningNew Haven16-1.6-0.6
3781Justice HannaF6-00Other newcomer10-2.1-0.5
3801Kyle KearsonG6-41ReturningNew Haven9-2.1-0.5
3833John OladipoF6-20Other newcomer9-2.2-0.5
3912Owen HotalingF6-30Other newcomer9-2.2-0.5
4044Matiss OgleF6-50Other newcomer9-2.4-0.6
4180Jagger BascombeG6-42ReturningNew Haven7-3.0-0.5
4207Stefano FaloppaF6-92ReturningNew Haven21-1.7-0.9
4275Nathan NarcisseG6-41ReturningNew Haven6-3.4-0.5
4435Tristan BurthF6-81ReturningNew Haven9-3.0-0.7
4758Zoumana TraoreG6-81ReturningNew Haven10-3.7-0.9
4842Najimi GeorgeG6-41ReturningNew Haven25-2.4-1.5
4947Vere AnthonyG6-01ReturningNew Haven11-3.9-1.1

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02atSyracuse #71-17.87%
Fri Nov 06atRutgers #102-14.412%
Tue Nov 10vsArmy #314+3.963%
Sun Nov 15atPenn State #89-16.49%
Sat Nov 21vsNew Hampshire #335+5.066%
Tue Nov 24NLindenwood #258-3.040%
Tue Dec 01atDelaware State #363+0.251%
Fri Dec 04vsColumbia #169-1.147%
Wed Dec 09vsNJIT #347+6.270%
Fri Dec 18atStony Brook #283-7.228%
Sun Dec 20atBoston College #114-13.114%
Wed Dec 30atNebraska #12-24.92%
Sat Jan 02vsMercyhurst #239conf-1.744%
Mon Jan 04vsLong Island University #210conf-2.841%
Fri Jan 08vsWagner #291conf+0.050%
Thu Jan 14atCentral Connecticut #316conf-1.944%
Sat Jan 16atChicago State #337conf-1.545%
Thu Jan 21vsFairleigh Dickinson #334conf+1.956%
Sat Jan 23atLong Island University #210conf-7.028%
Wed Jan 27atStonehill #354conf+0.552%
Sat Jan 30vsCentral Connecticut #316conf+1.053%
Wed Feb 03vsLe Moyne #217conf-2.741%
Sat Feb 06atWagner #291conf-3.339%
Thu Feb 11atFairleigh Dickinson #334conf-2.043%
Sat Feb 13vsChicago State #337conf+2.157%
Thu Feb 18atLe Moyne #217conf-6.929%
Sat Feb 20atMercyhurst #239conf-6.231%
Thu Feb 25vsStonehill #354conf+4.263%

Projected margin is from New Haven's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.