Roster Math

Teams › Mountain West · Compare San José State with another team

San José State

San José State returns 38% of last season's minutes and rates #179 on offense and #211 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.3 to +6.4.

-1.0
Rating · #187 of 365
-0.4
Offense · #179
-0.6
Defense · #211
-8.3 to +6.4
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-16
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
8-10
Projected in Mountain West · 4 to 12 wins

Why we have them here

San José State's preseason projection of -1.0 (No. 187 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -0.2, more than the -1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 295 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.2, less than its neighbours' +0.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.1. It returns 38% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (67%). The projection leans most on Yaphet Moundi (+1.4), Mookie Cook (+1.1) and Scotty Middleton (+0.8); the newcomer who matters most is Mookie Cook, a transfer from San Francisco, at +1.1. Its 80% range, -8.3 to +6.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 29% · Transfer 48% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 9%

Yaphet Moundi+1.4
Mookie Cook+1.1
Scotty Middleton+0.8
Joey Chammaa+0.7
Robert Vaihola+0.3
Zine Eddine Bedri+0.1
Rokiem Green-0.3
Damase Coly-0.5
Christian Wise-0.6
Jaden Goodall-0.6
Eren Karakaya-0.6
Pasha Goodarzi-1.2
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
666Yaphet MoundiF6-82ReturningSan José State22+2.6+1.4
797Mookie CookF6-63TransferSan Francisco21+2.1+1.1
973Scotty MiddletonF6-63TransferTulane23+1.4+0.8
980Joey ChammaaG5-113TransferArkansas State17+1.6+0.7
1308Robert VaiholaF6-85TransferMinnesota17+0.6+0.3
1480Zine Eddine BedriF6-104TransferColumbia18+0.3+0.1
3020Rokiem GreenG6-20FreshmanHigh school8-1.6-0.3
3748Damase ColyF6-20Other newcomer9-2.1-0.5
4038Christian WiseF6-63Other newcomer10-2.3-0.6
4266Jaden GoodallF6-61ReturningSan José State7-3.0-0.6
4376Eren KarakayaC6-101ReturningSan José State8-3.0-0.6
4691Pasha GoodarziG6-33ReturningSan José State20-2.4-1.2

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsUTSA #284+8.475%
Sat Nov 07atUC Irvine #105-8.923%
Thu Nov 12vsUC Riverside #252+7.172%
Sun Nov 15vsAlabama State #340+11.182%
Wed Nov 18vsFresno State #221+6.169%
Sun Nov 22NLoyola Chicago #166-0.748%
Sat Nov 28atUtah Valley #112-9.522%
Sat Dec 05vsSeattle U #111+2.056%
Tue Dec 08vsLong Beach State #278+8.275%
Sat Dec 12vsSouthern Utah #292+9.077%
Fri Dec 18atStanford #69-13.014%
Tue Dec 22vsUC San Diego #77-0.947%
Sat Jan 02vsHawai'i #179conf+2.056%
Tue Jan 05atAir Force #357conf+7.072%
Sat Jan 09vsUNLV #139conf+0.451%
Wed Jan 13vsGrand Canyon #59conf-5.433%
Sat Jan 16atUC Davis #255conf+0.652%
Tue Jan 19atNew Mexico #50conf-11.817%
Sat Jan 23vsNevada #66conf-4.835%
Sat Jan 30atUTEP #237conf-0.249%
Tue Feb 02vsNew Mexico #50conf-6.829%
Sat Feb 06atUNLV #139conf-4.436%
Tue Feb 09vsUC Davis #255conf+4.464%
Sat Feb 13vsAir Force #357conf+10.380%
Tue Feb 16atHawai'i #179conf-2.741%
Sat Feb 20vsWyoming #121conf-0.449%
Tue Feb 23atNevada #66conf-9.921%
Fri Feb 26atGrand Canyon #59conf-10.420%
Tue Mar 02vsUTEP #237conf+3.762%
Fri Mar 05atWyoming #121conf-5.234%

Projected margin is from San José State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.