Roster Math

Teams › SWAC · Compare Grambling with another team

Grambling

Grambling returns 68% of last season's minutes and rates #350 on offense and #155 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -14.1 to +0.6.

-6.7
Rating · #302 of 365
-7.2
Offense · #350
+0.5
Defense · #155
-14.1 to +0.6
80% range
0%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
13-16
Projected record · 8 to 19 wins
10-8
Projected in SWAC · 6 to 14 wins

Why we have them here

Grambling's preseason projection of -6.7 (No. 302 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -3.7, about the -4.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 285 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.7, about its neighbours' -1.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.7. It returns 68% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (69%). The projection leans most on Roderick Coffee III (+3.3), Jamil Muttilib (+0.1) and Isaiah Miranda (-0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Isaiah Miranda, a transfer from Long Island University, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -14.1 to +0.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 68% · Transfer 16% · Other newcomer 5%

Roderick Coffee III+3.3
Jamil Muttilib+0.1
Isaiah Miranda-0.4
Mekhi Fitts-0.5
Josue Grullon-0.6
Chancellor Perkins-0.7
Randarius Jones-0.7
Saliou Seye-0.7
Nazar Mahmoud-0.9
Richard Amaefule-1.1
Devyn Franklin-1.5
Dwayne Pierce-2.5
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
230Roderick Coffee IIIF6-43ReturningGrambling29+4.6+3.3
1544Jamil MuttilibG6-62ReturningGrambling24+0.1+0.1
3247Isaiah MirandaF7-13TransferLong Island University12-1.5-0.4
3366Mekhi FittsF6-71ReturningGrambling13-1.5-0.5
3979Josue GrullonF6-52Other newcomer10-2.2-0.6
3999Randarius JonesC6-73ReturningGrambling15-1.9-0.7
4389Chancellor PerkinsG6-21ReturningGrambling9-3.0-0.7
4398Saliou SeyeF7-03ReturningGrambling10-2.9-0.7
4674Nazar MahmoudG6-53ReturningGrambling12-3.1-0.9
5006Devyn FranklinG6-82ReturningGrambling18-3.4-1.5
5053Richard AmaefuleF6-92ReturningGrambling9-5.1-1.1
5215Dwayne PierceG6-51TransferNorth Carolina A&T20-4.8-2.5

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02NNorthern Illinois #333+1.756%
Mon Nov 09atTexas #20-23.83%
Mon Nov 16atKentucky #22-24.42%
Thu Nov 19vsSouthern Miss #214+1.555%
Wed Nov 25atNew Orleans #303-4.635%
Sun Nov 29atSouthern Miss #214-8.924%
Thu Dec 03atHoward #196-8.425%
Fri Dec 04NTennessee State #154-5.433%
Sun Dec 13vsNew Orleans #303+4.865%
Thu Dec 17atDuke #2-28.8<1%
Mon Dec 21vsApp State #229+1.956%
Sat Jan 02atPrairie View A&M #341conf+0.251%
Mon Jan 04atTexas Southern #331conf-1.446%
Sat Jan 09vsBethune-Cookman #220conf-1.545%
Mon Jan 11vsFlorida A&M #336conf+3.561%
Sat Jan 16atSouthern #235conf-6.032%
Sat Jan 23atMississippi Valley State #365conf+10.380%
Mon Jan 25atArkansas-Pine Bluff #349conf+1.354%
Sat Jan 30vsJackson State #355conf+6.169%
Mon Feb 01vsAlcorn State #358conf+6.470%
Sat Feb 06atAlabama State #340conf-0.349%
Mon Feb 08atAlabama A&M #343conf-0.748%
Sat Feb 13vsTexas Southern #331conf+3.160%
Mon Feb 15vsPrairie View A&M #341conf+3.762%
Sat Feb 20vsSouthern #235conf-0.748%
Thu Feb 25atBethune-Cookman #220conf-6.131%
Sat Feb 27atFlorida A&M #336conf-0.847%
Tue Mar 02vsAlabama A&M #343conf+3.762%
Thu Mar 04vsAlabama State #340conf+3.661%

Projected margin is from Grambling's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.