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Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Arkansas-Pine Bluff returns 76% of last season's minutes and rates #348 on offense and #342 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -19.1 to -4.4.
Why we have them here
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's preseason projection of -11.8 (No. 349 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.4, about the -6.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 306 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.6, more than its neighbours' -2.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -4.1. It returns 76% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (77%). The projection leans most on Alex Mirhosseini (-0.1), Jaquan Scott (-0.1) and Harrison Pickett (-0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Jahmari Hamilton-Brown, a newcomer from outside Division I, at -0.8. Its 80% range, -19.1 to -4.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 70% · Transfer 5% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1732 | Alex Mirhosseini | F | 5-10 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 28 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 1830 | Jaquan Scott | F | 6-8 | 3 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 28 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 4339 | Harrison Pickett | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 7 | -3.2 | -0.6 |
| 4384 | Jahmari Hamilton-Brown | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 13 | -2.5 | -0.8 | |
| 4493 | Travis Pourciau | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 7 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
| 4664 | Anthony Sellars | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 12 | -3.1 | -0.9 |
| 4939 | C.J. Smith | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | UTEP | 10 | -4.1 | -1.0 |
| 5048 | Dennis Asoro | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 10 | -4.7 | -1.1 |
| 5051 | Kyle Brown | F | 6-9 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 11 | -4.4 | -1.2 |
| 5069 | Ramel Lloyd Jr. | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 20 | -3.4 | -1.7 |
| 5159 | Jai'chaunn Hayes | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 16 | -4.5 | -1.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  Arkansas #25 | -28.9 | 1% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Baylor #37 | -25.8 | 2% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  UCLA #28 | -26.0 | 2% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  California Baptist #157 | -14.3 | 13% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | at |  USC #35 | -25.9 | 2% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Arkansas State #134 | -16.8 | 9% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  South Dakota #322 | -9.0 | 24% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | at |  Missouri #43 | -23.7 | 3% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Saint Louis #56 | -23.5 | 3% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | -27.0 | 2% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | at |  Murray State #117 | -16.8 | 9% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Eastern Illinois #324 | -7.8 | 27% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Alabama A&M #343 | conf | -4.3 | 37% |
| Mon Jan 04 | at |  Alabama State #340 | conf | -4.0 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Texas Southern #331 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Mon Jan 11 | vs |  Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Florida A&M #336 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Bethune-Cookman #220 | conf | -10.0 | 21% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Southern #235 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Mon Jan 25 | vs |  Grambling #302 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | conf | +12.3 | 84% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Alcorn State #358 | conf | -1.7 | 45% |
| Mon Feb 08 | at |  Jackson State #355 | conf | -2.3 | 43% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Alabama State #340 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Mon Feb 15 | vs | Alabama A&M #343 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Prairie View A&M #341 | conf | -3.5 | 39% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Mississippi Valley State #365 | conf | +7.1 | 71% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs | Jackson State #355 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Alcorn State #358 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
Projected margin is from Arkansas-Pine Bluff's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.