Teams › MVC · Compare Drake with another team
Drake
Drake returns 64% of last season's minutes and rates #85 on offense and #173 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -2.9 to +11.7.
Why we have them here
Drake's preseason projection of +4.4 (No. 104 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +2.2, about the +2.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 210 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.3, less than its neighbours' +0.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.1. It returns 64% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (47%). The projection leans most on Eli Shetlar (+3.4), Jon Carroll (+2.3) and Dre Kindell (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jon Carroll, a transfer from Morehead State, at +2.3. Its 80% range, -2.9 to +11.7, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 55% · Transfer 22% · Freshman 8% · Other newcomer 9%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | Eli Shetlar | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Drake | 27 | +5.1 | +3.4 |
| 377 | Jon Carroll | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Morehead State | 24 | +3.9 | +2.3 |
| 718 | Dre Kindell | G | 5-11 | 1 | Transfer | Wichita State | 20 | +2.5 | +1.2 |
| 1189 | Griffen Goodbary | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Drake | 16 | +1.0 | +0.4 |
| 1576 | Owen Larson | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Drake | 23 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| 2069 | Miles Flemons | C | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 7 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2446 | LJ Rush | F | 5-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 5 | -1.4 | -0.2 | |
| 2644 | Dothan Ijadimbola | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.1 | -0.3 |
| 2908 | Bryson Bahl | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 6 | -1.7 | -0.2 | |
| 3027 | Andrew Alia | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Drake | 26 | -0.9 | -0.6 |
| 3528 | Heri Bukinga | F | 6-11 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |
| 3878 | Jaehshon Thomas | G | 6-3 | 2 | Returning | Drake | 19 | -1.5 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 08 | vs |  Southern #235 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  South Dakota #322 | +14.6 | 88% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Tarleton State #257 | +11.5 | 82% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | vs |  Charleston #141 | +7.2 | 72% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Missouri State #201 | -0.7 | 48% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Boise State #87 | -1.9 | 44% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | N |  North Dakota State #225 | +4.9 | 65% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  North Texas #135 | +1.5 | 55% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Michigan State #6 | -18.8 | 6% | |
| Fri Dec 11 | vs |  North Carolina Central #353 | +16.6 | 91% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | at |  Evansville #317 | conf | +5.2 | 66% |
| Fri Dec 18 | N |  Davidson #132 | +1.4 | 55% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Indiana State #116 | conf | -2.4 | 42% |
| Fri Jan 01 | at |  Murray State #117 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Tue Jan 05 | vs |  Belmont #94 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Tue Jan 12 | vs |  Valparaiso #172 | conf | +5.3 | 67% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Bradley #194 | conf | +0.9 | 53% |
| Mon Jan 18 | at |  Illinois State #108 | conf | -3.0 | 40% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  UIC #120 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sun Jan 24 | vs | Murray State #117 | conf | +3.1 | 60% |
| Wed Jan 27 | at | Belmont #94 | conf | -3.4 | 39% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Northern Iowa #88 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Valparaiso #172 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Evansville #317 | conf | +10.5 | 80% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Southern Illinois #206 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Fri Feb 12 | vs | Bradley #194 | conf | +6.3 | 69% |
| Thu Feb 18 | vs | Indiana State #116 | conf | +3.0 | 59% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Northern Iowa #88 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Illinois State #108 | conf | +2.3 | 58% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | UIC #120 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
Projected margin is from Drake's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.