Teams › Big Ten · Compare Oregon with another team
Oregon
Oregon returns 32% of last season's minutes and rates #47 on offense and #81 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +3.5 to +17.8.
Why we have them here
Oregon's preseason projection of +10.6 (No. 58 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +7.2, about the +6.6 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 155 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.2, less than its neighbours' +1.5; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.6. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.3, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 32% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (33%). The projection leans most on Fred Payne (+2.9), Malique Ewin (+2.5) and Tyrone Riley IV (+2.5); the newcomer who matters most is Fred Payne, a transfer from Boston College, at +2.9. Its 80% range, +3.5 to +17.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 31% · Transfer 61% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 179 | Malique Ewin | F | 6-10 | 4 | Transfer | Arkansas | 14 | +7.0 | +2.5 |
| 243 | Fred Payne | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Boston College | 23 | +5.0 | +2.9 |
| 293 | Pharaoh Compton | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | San Diego State | 11 | +6.5 | +1.8 |
| 314 | Tyrone Riley IV | G | 6-6 | 2 | Transfer | San Francisco | 22 | +4.5 | +2.5 |
| 624 | Dwayne Aristode | F | 6-8 | 1 | Transfer | Arizona | 8 | +4.5 | +0.9 |
| 626 | Sean Stewart | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Oregon | 14 | +3.4 | +1.2 |
| 691 | Takai Simpkins | G | 6-4 | 3 | Returning | Oregon | 20 | +2.6 | +1.3 |
| 822 | Jasper Johnson | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | Kentucky | 7 | +3.4 | +0.6 |
| 875 | Andrew Meadow | F | 6-7 | 3 | Transfer | Boise State | 17 | +2.0 | +0.9 |
| 989 | Taylor Bol Bowen | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Alabama | 10 | +2.1 | +0.5 |
| 1263 | Tajh Ariza | F | 6-9 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 6 | +1.3 | +0.2 |
| 1521 | Kendre Harrison | C | 6-7 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | +0.4 | +0.0 |
| 1968 | Seven Spurlock | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2137 | Jerry Easter II | G | 6-5 | 1 | Transfer | USC | 8 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2164 | Rian Gonzales | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 2 | -1.4 | -0.1 | |
| 2168 | Oleksandr Kobzystyi | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Oregon | 4 | -1.0 | -0.1 |
| 2325 | Wei Lin | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Oregon | 8 | -0.9 | -0.2 |
| 2805 | Luke Johnson | F | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Oregon | 3 | -2.4 | -0.2 |
| 2867 | Devon Pryor | F | 6-7 | 3 | Returning | Oregon | 7 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3978 | Drew Carter | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Oregon | 6 | -2.9 | -0.4 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Montana #222 | +14.8 | 89% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Eastern Washington #146 | +12.2 | 84% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | vs |  Mississippi Valley State #365 | +30.5 | >99% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Pepperdine #249 | +15.7 | 90% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | N |  Oregon State #93 | +2.7 | 59% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  St. John's #21 | -5.3 | 33% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -6.9 | 29% |
| Sat Dec 05 | vs |  USC #35 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  Indiana State #116 | +11.0 | 81% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Southern #235 | +16.0 | 90% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | vs |  Portland State #186 | +13.7 | 87% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Penn State #89 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Wed Jan 06 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | +2.2 | 57% |
| Sun Jan 10 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -11.4 | 18% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +4.4 | 64% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +6.5 | 70% |
| Sat Jan 30 | N |  Gonzaga #14 | -6.5 | 30% | |
| Wed Feb 03 | at |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | -6.2 | 31% |
| Sun Feb 07 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Minnesota #65 | conf | -2.6 | 41% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs |  Maryland #64 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | -5.7 | 32% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +0.7 | 52% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | USC #35 | conf | -5.5 | 33% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | UCLA #28 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Washington #92 | conf | +0.2 | 51% |
Projected margin is from Oregon's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.