Teams › Big Ten · Compare Wisconsin with another team
Wisconsin
Wisconsin returns 54% of last season's minutes and rates #40 on offense and #39 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +7.0 to +21.8.
Why we have them here
Wisconsin's preseason projection of +14.4 (No. 34 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +9.3, about the +8.9 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 28 at the end of 2025-26) adds +3.2, about its neighbours' +2.6; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +3.5. A stretch at the top of the scale adds +0.7, because a straight-line calibration shrinks elite teams. It returns 54% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (29%). The projection leans most on Nolan Winter (+6.3), Austin Rapp (+3.5) and Eian Elmer (+3.0); the newcomer who matters most is Eian Elmer, a transfer from Miami (OH), at +3.0. Its 80% range, +7.0 to +21.8, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 54% · Transfer 35% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 6%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Nolan Winter | F | 7-0 | 3 | Returning | Wisconsin | 29 | +8.7 | +6.3 |
| 159 | Austin Rapp | F | 6-10 | 2 | Returning | Wisconsin | 24 | +5.8 | +3.5 |
| 257 | Eian Elmer | G | 6-6 | 3 | Transfer | Miami (OH) | 26 | +4.5 | +3.0 |
| 270 | Trey Autry | G | 6-4 | 3 | Transfer | George Washington | 27 | +4.4 | +2.9 |
| 562 | Braeden Carrington | G | 6-5 | 4 | Returning | Wisconsin | 18 | +3.3 | +1.5 |
| 699 | Victory Onuetu | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Hofstra | 18 | +2.7 | +1.2 |
| 1276 | Zach Kinziger | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Wisconsin | 8 | +1.0 | +0.2 |
| 1806 | Owen Foxwell | G | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.5 | +0.0 | |
| 1871 | Isaac Riddle | F | 6-8 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1878 | Josh Manchester | G | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.6 | +0.0 | |
| 1909 | Jackson Ball | G | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 3 | -0.7 | -0.1 | |
| 1943 | LaTrevion Fenderson | F | 6-5 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2149 | Will Garlock | F | 7-0 | 1 | Returning | Wisconsin | 8 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| 2177 | Hayden Jones | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | Wisconsin | 8 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| 2381 | Jack Janicki | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | Wisconsin | 14 | -0.8 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Denver #240 | +19.4 | 94% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Delaware #325 | +22.0 | 96% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Fairfield #248 | +19.5 | 94% | |
| Sun Nov 15 | vs |  Coastal Carolina #301 | +21.9 | 96% | |
| Thu Nov 19 | N |  Seton Hall #106 | +6.9 | 71% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | at |  Northwestern #79 | conf | +1.1 | 53% |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  Marquette #47 | -5.8 | 32% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | vs |  Purdue #38 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Dec 12 | N |  Villanova #24 | -2.1 | 43% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | N |  Auburn #16 | -3.7 | 38% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | vs |  Purdue Fort Wayne #212 | +18.6 | 93% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | vs |  Colorado State #67 | +9.7 | 79% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | -2.5 | 42% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Iowa #33 | conf | -3.8 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +6.6 | 70% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Penn State #89 | conf | +9.0 | 77% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  USC #35 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Tue Jan 19 | at |  UCLA #28 | conf | -4.6 | 36% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Washington #92 | conf | +9.2 | 77% |
| Tue Jan 26 | at |  Maryland #64 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at | Minnesota #65 | conf | -0.2 | 49% |
| Wed Feb 03 | vs |  Oregon #58 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs |  Michigan #11 | conf | -0.8 | 47% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +3.7 | 62% |
| Fri Feb 19 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | +5.7 | 68% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs | Iowa #33 | conf | +3.3 | 61% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | Illinois #5 | conf | -9.5 | 22% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -0.8 | 48% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -9.2 | 23% |
Projected margin is from Wisconsin's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.