Teams › Summit · Compare South Dakota with another team
South Dakota
South Dakota returns 66% of last season's minutes and rates #275 on offense and #348 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -15.9 to -1.4.
Why we have them here
South Dakota's preseason projection of -8.6 (No. 322 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -6.0, about the -5.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 314 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.6, about its neighbours' -2.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.2. It returns 66% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (73%). The projection leans most on Josh Townley-Thomas (-0.2), Jesse McIntosh (-0.2) and Porter Ihnen (-0.3); the newcomer who matters most is Josh Townley-Thomas, a transfer from Creighton, at -0.2. Its 80% range, -15.9 to -1.4, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 49% · Transfer 29% · Freshman 5% · Other newcomer 16%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2177 | Jesse McIntosh | G | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota | 16 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| 2666 | Josh Townley-Thomas | F | 6-10 | 2 | Transfer | Creighton | 5 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| 2799 | Porter Ihnen | G | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota | 7 | -1.5 | -0.3 |
| 3098 | Michael Nee | G | 6-1 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 10 | -1.4 | -0.4 |
| 3359 | Melo Sanchez | G | 6-4 | 4 | Transfer | Central Connecticut | 23 | -1.1 | -0.6 |
| 3502 | Stef van Bussel | C | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Duquesne | 6 | -2.3 | -0.3 |
| 3720 | Luke Bruns | F | 6-2 | 0 | Other newcomer | 8 | -2.2 | -0.4 | |
| 3727 | Josiah Dotzler | F | 6-3 | 3 | Other newcomer | 7 | -2.3 | -0.4 | |
| 3790 | Jalen Hayes | F | 6-2 | 2 | Other newcomer | 8 | -2.2 | -0.5 | |
| 4216 | Jonah Funk | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -2.7 | -0.6 | |
| 4279 | KJ Thomas | G | 6-1 | 2 | Transfer | UTEP | 24 | -1.7 | -1.0 |
| 4563 | Vince Buzelis | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota | 19 | -2.3 | -1.1 |
| 4868 | Ethan Kizer | F | 6-5 | 3 | Returning | South Dakota | 14 | -3.3 | -1.1 |
| 5054 | Silas Bennion | G | 2 | Returning | South Dakota | 21 | -3.3 | -1.7 | |
| 5077 | Jake Brack | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | South Dakota | 11 | -4.8 | -1.3 |
| 5139 | Evan Anderson | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | South Dakota | 12 | -5.0 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Nov 04 | vs |  Northern Kentucky #270 | +4.0 | 63% | |
| Sat Nov 07 | vs |  Cal State Fullerton #236 | +3.0 | 59% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  Houston Christian #273 | +3.8 | 62% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Drake #104 | -14.6 | 12% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | at |  Nebraska #12 | -27.1 | 1% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Utah Tech #275 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +9.0 | 76% | |
| Mon Nov 30 | vs |  Montana State #138 | -0.8 | 47% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | at |  North Florida #321 | -5.6 | 33% | |
| Sat Dec 05 | at |  San Francisco #189 | -10.7 | 19% | |
| Tue Dec 08 | at |  Montana #222 | -10.3 | 20% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs | North Florida #321 | +6.6 | 70% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +7.0 | 71% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Iowa #33 | -22.3 | 3% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | at |  Oral Roberts #323 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Kansas City #338 | conf | -2.0 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  South Dakota State #213 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  North Dakota #310 | conf | +2.5 | 58% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  North Dakota State #225 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Omaha #274 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -10.6 | 20% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs | Kansas City #338 | conf | +4.0 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Oral Roberts #323 | conf | +3.3 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 13 | at | South Dakota State #213 | conf | -7.0 | 28% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | North Dakota State #225 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | North Dakota #310 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | conf | -4.7 | 35% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Omaha #274 | conf | +0.8 | 52% |
Projected margin is from South Dakota's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.