Teams › Big Ten · Compare Northwestern with another team
Northwestern
Northwestern returns 24% of last season's minutes and rates #94 on offense and #69 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.7 to +15.2.
Why we have them here
Northwestern's preseason projection of +8.0 (No. 79 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.3, less than the +4.7 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 74 at the end of 2025-26) adds +1.4, about its neighbours' +1.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +2.8. It returns 24% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on Jack Karasinski (+3.1), Colin Smith (+1.5) and Jake West (+1.2); the newcomer who matters most is Jack Karasinski, a transfer from Bellarmine, at +3.1. Its 80% range, +0.7 to +15.2, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 24% · Transfer 68% · Freshman 7% · Other newcomer 2%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 215 | Jack Karasinski | F | 6-7 | 4 | Transfer | Bellarmine | 25 | +5.1 | +3.1 |
| 659 | Colin Smith | F | 6-8 | 4 | Transfer | UC Santa Barbara | 25 | +2.5 | +1.5 |
| 744 | Angelo Ciaravino | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Northwestern | 19 | +2.5 | +1.1 |
| 754 | Jake West | G | 6-3 | 1 | Returning | Northwestern | 20 | +2.3 | +1.2 |
| 934 | Luke McEldon | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Mount St. Mary's | 20 | +1.7 | +0.9 |
| 1198 | Ryan Soulis | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | Columbia | 16 | +0.9 | +0.4 |
| 1437 | Jayden Hodge | F | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 9 | +0.4 | +0.1 |
| 1492 | Aleksej Kostic | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | BYU | 10 | +0.3 | +0.1 |
| 1630 | Okku Federiko | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Drake | 18 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 2228 | Elijah Eschmeyer | F | 6-7 | 0 | Other newcomer | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 | |
| 2243 | Symon Ghai | C | 7-3 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 4 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 2254 | Gus Hurlburt | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | Northwestern | 4 | -1.2 | -0.1 |
| 2744 | Phoenix Gill | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Northwestern | 4 | -1.8 | -0.2 |
| 3582 | Dylan Williams | G | 5-11 | 2 | Transfer | Pennsylvania | 6 | -2.5 | -0.3 |
| 4905 | LA Pratt | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Northeastern | 16 | -3.1 | -1.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Binghamton #330 | +17.1 | 92% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | vs |  Stony Brook #283 | +15.3 | 90% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | vs |  Boston University #230 | +13.2 | 86% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | vs |  DePaul #97 | +7.4 | 73% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | vs |  Columbia #169 | +11.7 | 83% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | N |  Virginia Tech #45 | -3.3 | 40% | |
| Sun Nov 22 | N |  Dayton #74 | -0.6 | 48% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | vs |  Northeastern #296 | +16.4 | 91% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Wisconsin #34 | conf | -1.1 | 47% |
| Sat Dec 05 | N |  BYU #23 | -7.0 | 29% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Michigan #11 | conf | -11.9 | 17% |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Mercyhurst #239 | +13.6 | 87% | |
| Sun Dec 20 | N |  Oklahoma State #91 | +0.9 | 53% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | vs |  Chicago State #337 | +17.6 | 93% | |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Minnesota #65 | conf | +2.0 | 57% |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Ohio State #27 | conf | -8.5 | 24% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Penn State #89 | conf | -2.8 | 41% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Illinois #5 | conf | -6.8 | 29% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Rutgers #102 | conf | +5.2 | 67% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Washington #92 | conf | -1.6 | 45% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Oregon #58 | conf | -4.4 | 36% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Indiana #55 | conf | +1.0 | 53% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  USC #35 | conf | -0.9 | 47% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Purdue #38 | conf | -6.7 | 29% |
| Tue Feb 09 | at | Indiana #55 | conf | -6.0 | 31% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs |  Iowa #33 | conf | -1.1 | 46% |
| Tue Feb 16 | at | Illinois #5 | conf | -13.3 | 14% |
| Sun Feb 21 | at | Minnesota #65 | conf | -4.3 | 36% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  UCLA #28 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs |  Nebraska #12 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Tue Mar 02 | vs |  Michigan State #6 | conf | -6.4 | 30% |
| Sun Mar 07 | at |  Maryland #64 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
Projected margin is from Northwestern's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.