Teams › CUSA · Compare Jacksonville State with another team
Jacksonville State
Jacksonville State returns 49% of last season's minutes and rates #244 on offense and #158 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -9.1 to +5.6.
Why we have them here
Jacksonville State's preseason projection of -1.8 (No. 203 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -1.4, about the -1.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 198 at the end of 2025-26) adds -0.4, about its neighbours' -0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.4. It returns 49% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (66%). The projection leans most on Mostapha El Moutaouakkil (+2.3), AC Bryant (+2.2) and Leon Horner (-0.1); the newcomer who matters most is Leon Horner, a transfer from Texas Tech, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -9.1 to +5.6, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 45% · Transfer 35% · Other newcomer 3%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 459 | Mostapha El Moutaouakkil | G | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Jacksonville State | 29 | +3.1 | +2.3 |
| 461 | AC Bryant | G | 6-3 | 3 | Returning | Jacksonville State | 27 | +3.3 | +2.2 |
| 1986 | Leon Horner | G | 6-4 | 2 | Transfer | Texas Tech | 14 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
| 2595 | Jordan Vick | F | 5-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.3 | -0.2 | |
| 2947 | Kash Polk | F | 6-10 | 1 | Transfer | Arizona State | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3552 | Aidan Driggers | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Jacksonville State | 9 | -1.9 | -0.4 |
| 3801 | Connor Loy | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | Jacksonville State | 10 | -2.0 | -0.5 |
| 4247 | Bencao Vungo | G | 6-6 | 3 | Returning | Jacksonville State | 15 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| 4355 | Daniel Tobiloba | C | 7-0 | 3 | Transfer | UC Riverside | 7 | -3.2 | -0.6 |
| 4571 | Naas Cunningham | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | UNLV | 15 | -2.6 | -1.0 |
| 5026 | Jordan Stiemke | G | 6-5 | 3 | Transfer | Loyola Maryland | 24 | -2.9 | -1.8 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  South Alabama #228 | -4.2 | 37% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | at |  Houston #8 | -22.8 | 3% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  UAB #158 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -3.0 | 40% | |
| Fri Nov 20 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | +6.6 | 70% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | N |  Pacific #175 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Thu Nov 26 | N |  UC Davis #255 | +1.6 | 55% | |
| Fri Nov 27 | N |  Omaha #274 | +2.2 | 57% | |
| Tue Dec 01 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | +9.1 | 77% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs | Louisiana Tech #269 | +6.6 | 71% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | vs |  East Tennessee State #171 | +3.6 | 62% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Wichita State #62 | -13.3 | 14% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Middle Tennessee #127 | conf | -1.3 | 46% |
| Sat Jan 02 | vs |  Western Kentucky #160 | conf | +0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  Kennesaw State #167 | conf | -4.0 | 37% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  New Mexico State #137 | conf | -4.5 | 36% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Sam Houston #185 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Thu Jan 21 | vs |  Liberty #150 | conf | -0.1 | 50% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Delaware #325 | conf | +6.0 | 69% |
| Thu Jan 28 | at |  Florida International #143 | conf | -4.8 | 35% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Missouri State #201 | conf | -1.8 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 06 | vs | Kennesaw State #167 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Sam Houston #185 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | New Mexico State #137 | conf | -0.6 | 48% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Delaware #325 | conf | +3.6 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | Liberty #150 | conf | -4.6 | 35% |
| Thu Feb 25 | vs | Florida International #143 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Feb 27 | vs | Missouri State #201 | conf | +1.7 | 55% |
| Thu Mar 04 | at | Western Kentucky #160 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sat Mar 06 | at | Middle Tennessee #127 | conf | -5.7 | 32% |
Projected margin is from Jacksonville State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.