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Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas returns 94% of last season's minutes and rates #203 on offense and #162 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -8.0 to +6.5.
Why we have them here
Central Arkansas's preseason projection of -0.7 (No. 181 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.0, more than the -0.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 123 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.5, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -2.5. It returns 94% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (64%). The projection leans most on Ty Robinson (+5.1), Luke Moore (+0.8) and Truman Byrne (+0.6); the newcomer who matters most is Tucker Anderson, a transfer from Utah State, at -0.1. Its 80% range, -8.0 to +6.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 90% · Transfer 6% · Other newcomer 4%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 | Ty Robinson | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 27 | +7.5 | +5.1 |
| 1027 | Luke Moore | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 26 | +1.2 | +0.8 |
| 1064 | Truman Byrne | F | 6-10 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 17 | +1.3 | +0.6 |
| 1386 | Cole McCormick | F | 6-6 | 2 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 22 | +0.4 | +0.2 |
| 1893 | Tucker Anderson | F | 6-9 | 3 | Transfer | Utah State | 13 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2780 | R.J. Newton | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 7 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 2792 | J.C. Shulman | G | 6-2 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 8 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| 3283 | Ethan Thomas | G | 6-1 | 2 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 8 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| 3450 | Tyler Lee | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 12 | -1.6 | -0.5 |
| 3964 | Owen Derhmann | G | 6-4 | 2 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 7 | -2.6 | -0.5 |
| 4219 | Malchiah Marable | F | 6-9 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 18 | -1.9 | -0.9 |
| 4228 | Harry Beauchamp | G | 6-5 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 15 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| 4282 | Parker Applegate | G | 6-8 | 2 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 10 | -2.7 | -0.6 |
| 4393 | Chris Mason | F | 6-7 | 1 | Returning | Central Arkansas | 10 | -2.9 | -0.7 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Oral Roberts #323 | +11.7 | 83% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Ole Miss #61 | -13.1 | 14% | |
| Fri Nov 13 | at |  Arkansas #25 | -20.4 | 5% | |
| Mon Nov 16 | at |  Oklahoma State #91 | -12.1 | 17% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  Jacksonville #253 | -3.9 | 37% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | at |  North Florida #321 | +0.2 | 51% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | at |  Houston #8 | -23.2 | 3% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Colorado #85 | -13.3 | 14% | |
| Tue Dec 15 | vs |  East Texas A&M #319 | +11.5 | 82% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at | Oral Roberts #323 | +0.3 | 51% | |
| Mon Dec 28 | vs |  Stetson #311 | +10.8 | 81% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | vs |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | +10.3 | 80% | |
| Wed Jan 06 | at |  Tarleton State #257 | conf | -0.4 | 49% |
| Sat Jan 09 | at |  UT Arlington #211 | conf | -1.5 | 45% |
| Wed Jan 13 | vs |  Abilene Christian #192 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  West Georgia #295 | conf | +7.2 | 72% |
| Wed Jan 20 | at |  Austin Peay #163 | conf | -3.7 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 23 | vs |  Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | +5.8 | 68% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  North Alabama #332 | conf | +8.6 | 76% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | Abilene Christian #192 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at |  Little Rock #320 | conf | +3.4 | 61% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at | Eastern Kentucky #264 | conf | +0.4 | 51% |
| Wed Feb 17 | vs | Tarleton State #257 | conf | +5.6 | 67% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Little Rock #320 | conf | +8.2 | 75% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | North Alabama #332 | conf | +3.2 | 60% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | West Georgia #295 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
| Wed Mar 03 | vs | UT Arlington #211 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Mar 06 | vs | Austin Peay #163 | conf | +2.3 | 57% |
Projected margin is from Central Arkansas's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.