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Arkansas State
Arkansas State returns 46% of last season's minutes and rates #122 on offense and #165 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -5.2 to +9.5.
Why we have them here
Arkansas State's preseason projection of +2.2 (No. 134 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.1, about the +1.0 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 128 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.6, about its neighbours' +0.2; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +0.2. It returns 46% of last season's minutes, about the same as teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Layne Taylor (+2.5), Jalen Hampton (+2.3) and Jordan Pyke (+1.4); the newcomer who matters most is Layne Taylor, a transfer from Murray State, at +2.5. Its 80% range, -5.2 to +9.5, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 28% · Transfer 34% · Freshman 6% · Other newcomer 23%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 362 | Layne Taylor | G | 5-11 | 2 | Transfer | Murray State | 25 | +3.9 | +2.5 |
| 425 | Jalen Hampton | G | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | Arkansas State | 27 | +3.4 | +2.3 |
| 701 | Jordan Pyke | F | 6-7 | 2 | Transfer | Incarnate Word | 24 | +2.3 | +1.4 |
| 1923 | Royal Blue Smith | G | 6-4 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas State | 17 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| 2099 | Amadou Doumbia | F | 6-11 | 2 | Transfer | North Carolina A&T | 18 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 2857 | Weston Honeycutt | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 2900 | CJ Geathers | F | 6-4 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 2939 | Tim Matthews | F | 6-5 | 0 | Other newcomer | 9 | -1.4 | -0.3 | |
| 3340 | Grayson Bennett | F | 6-9 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3444 | Rho Omed | F | 6-10 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -1.7 | -0.4 | |
| 3586 | Aaron McGee | G | 6-4 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 11 | -1.7 | -0.5 |
| 4595 | Fredy-Salam Sylla | G | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | Arkansas State | 13 | -2.8 | -0.9 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Toledo #173 | +7.9 | 74% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  Alabama #17 | -20.7 | 5% | |
| Tue Nov 10 | vs |  UT Martin #271 | +11.1 | 81% | |
| Wed Nov 18 | vs |  Arkansas-Pine Bluff #349 | +16.8 | 91% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | N |  Southern Utah #292 | +6.3 | 69% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | N |  Long Beach State #278 | +5.5 | 67% | |
| Wed Nov 25 | at |  Florida International #143 | -5.6 | 33% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | vs |  Rice #262 | +10.9 | 81% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  Missouri State #201 | +8.9 | 76% | |
| Sun Dec 06 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | +13.7 | 86% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  St. Thomas-Minnesota #130 | -6.3 | 31% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  South Alabama #228 | conf | +6.4 | 70% |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Georgia Southern #298 | conf | +9.6 | 78% |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  James Madison #147 | conf | -2.1 | 43% |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Marshall #247 | conf | +1.4 | 55% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  App State #229 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Georgia State #260 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Louisiana Tech #269 | -0.4 | 49% | |
| Sat Jan 16 | vs |  Southern Miss #214 | conf | +6.2 | 69% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Old Dominion #297 | conf | +4.2 | 63% |
| Wed Jan 27 | vs |  Louisiana #294 | conf | +8.7 | 76% |
| Sat Jan 30 | at |  Troy #155 | conf | -2.0 | 44% |
| Wed Feb 03 | at | South Alabama #228 | conf | +1.4 | 55% |
| Wed Feb 10 | vs |  UL Monroe #359 | conf | +15.3 | 89% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Troy #155 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Wed Feb 17 | at | Louisiana #294 | conf | +3.8 | 62% |
| Sat Feb 20 | at | UL Monroe #359 | conf | +9.7 | 78% |
| Wed Feb 24 | at | Southern Miss #214 | conf | +0.5 | 52% |
| Fri Feb 26 | vs | Louisiana Tech #269 | +11.0 | 81% |
Projected margin is from Arkansas State's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.