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South Florida
South Florida returns 16% of last season's minutes and rates #56 on offense and #116 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: +0.6 to +15.1.
Why we have them here
South Florida's preseason projection of +7.9 (No. 83 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +3.8, about the +4.3 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 37 at the end of 2025-26) adds +2.5, more than its neighbours' +1.3; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add +1.1. It returns 16% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (41%). The projection leans most on AJ Dancler (+1.2), Garrett Johnson (+1.1) and Richard Goods (+1.1); the newcomer who matters most is AJ Dancler, a transfer from Coastal Carolina, at +1.2. Its 80% range, +0.6 to +15.1, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 15% · Transfer 81% · Freshman 3% · Other newcomer 1%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 756 | Garrett Johnson | F | 6-8 | 3 | Transfer | George Washington | 17 | +2.5 | +1.1 |
| 804 | AJ Dancler | G | 6-2 | 3 | Transfer | Coastal Carolina | 25 | +1.9 | +1.2 |
| 817 | Richard Goods | F | 6-9 | 2 | Transfer | Stony Brook | 21 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| 827 | Andrej Shoshkikj | G | 6-2 | 1 | Transfer | Stony Brook | 22 | +2.0 | +1.1 |
| 852 | Devin Haid | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | South Florida | 10 | +2.8 | +0.7 |
| 896 | Sonny Wilson | G | 6-1 | 3 | Transfer | Toledo | 27 | +1.6 | +1.0 |
| 1019 | Josh Omojafo | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | South Florida | 21 | +1.3 | +0.7 |
| 1095 | Joshua Lewis | F | 6-7 | 1 | Transfer | Louisiana | 15 | +1.3 | +0.5 |
| 1099 | Zayden High | F | 6-10 | 3 | Transfer | North Carolina | 9 | +1.7 | +0.4 |
| 1277 | Chris Davis Jr. | G | 6-4 | 1 | Transfer | Charleston | 14 | +0.8 | +0.3 |
| 1680 | Mike James | G | 6-5 | 4 | Transfer | Vanderbilt | 8 | +0.0 | +0.0 |
| 1847 | Reph Stevenson | F | 1 | Other newcomer | 2 | -0.6 | +0.0 | ||
| 2123 | Tiefing Diawara | C | 7-0 | 1 | Transfer | Syracuse | 3 | -1.1 | -0.1 |
| 3067 | Jayden Johnson | G | 6-6 | 0 | Freshman | High school | 5 | -2.0 | -0.3 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 02 | vs |  Charleston Southern #276 | +16.9 | 91% | |
| Thu Nov 05 | at |  DePaul #97 | -4.5 | 36% | |
| Wed Nov 11 | N |  Saint Joseph's #129 | +4.0 | 62% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  Coppin State #364 | +25.0 | 98% | |
| Tue Nov 17 | vs |  Tennessee State #154 | +12.0 | 83% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | at |  George Mason #107 | -3.9 | 38% | |
| Tue Nov 24 | vs |  Stetson #311 | +17.5 | 92% | |
| Sun Nov 29 | N |  Saint Louis #56 | -2.5 | 42% | |
| Wed Dec 02 | vs |  West Florida #304 | +17.2 | 91% | |
| Wed Dec 09 | vs |  Jacksonville #253 | +14.4 | 88% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at |  Dayton #74 | -7.2 | 28% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Alabama #17 | -2.2 | 43% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | vs |  Kennesaw State #167 | +12.6 | 84% | |
| Tue Dec 22 | at |  Charleston #141 | -0.9 | 47% | |
| Wed Dec 30 | at |  Tulsa #82 | conf | -2.9 | 41% |
| Sun Jan 03 | vs |  Memphis #100 | conf | +5.1 | 66% |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Charlotte #131 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
| Sun Jan 10 | at |  Tulane #250 | conf | +5.5 | 67% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  Temple #149 | conf | +2.7 | 59% |
| Sun Jan 17 | vs | Tulsa #82 | conf | +3.0 | 60% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  UTSA #284 | conf | +8.3 | 75% |
| Tue Jan 26 | vs |  Rice #262 | conf | +12.0 | 83% |
| Sun Jan 31 | at |  Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | +0.3 | 51% |
| Thu Feb 04 | vs |  Wichita State #62 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sun Feb 07 | at | Charlotte #131 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Wed Feb 10 | at |  East Carolina #182 | conf | +4.1 | 63% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | Temple #149 | conf | +7.8 | 73% |
| Thu Feb 18 | at | Wichita State #62 | conf | -4.1 | 37% |
| Sun Feb 21 | vs |  UAB #158 | conf | +8.6 | 75% |
| Wed Feb 24 | vs |  North Texas #135 | conf | +7.1 | 72% |
| Sun Feb 28 | at | Memphis #100 | conf | -1.4 | 46% |
| Thu Mar 04 | vs | Florida Atlantic #122 | conf | +6.9 | 71% |
Projected margin is from South Florida's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.