Teams › ASUN · Compare North Florida with another team
North Florida
North Florida returns 81% of last season's minutes and rates #241 on offense and #359 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -16.0 to -1.3.
Why we have them here
North Florida's preseason projection of -8.5 (No. 321 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth -5.3, about the -5.4 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 334 at the end of 2025-26) adds -1.8, about its neighbours' -2.0; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -1.7. It returns 81% of last season's minutes, more than teams ranked near it (72%). The projection leans most on Dalton Gayman (-0.1), Kent Jackson (-0.1) and Mason Lee (-0.2); the newcomer who matters most is Ayuba Bryant Jr., a transfer from Temple, at -0.4. Its 80% range, -16.0 to -1.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.
Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.
Roster
Returning 71% · Transfer 14% · Other newcomer 10%
| Rank | Player | Pos | Ht | D1 yrs | Group | From | MPG | Rating | Contrib. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1767 | Dalton Gayman | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | North Florida | 21 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| 1909 | Kent Jackson | G | 6-2 | 2 | Returning | North Florida | 25 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| 2065 | Mason Lee | F | 6-7 | 2 | Returning | North Florida | 23 | -0.4 | -0.2 |
| 3517 | Ayuba Bryant Jr. | F | 6-9 | 1 | Transfer | Temple | 10 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| 3760 | Elijah Elliott | G | 6-3 | 2 | Transfer | Ohio | 17 | -1.5 | -0.7 |
| 4114 | Mason Watkins | F | 6-3 | 0 | Other newcomer | 10 | -2.5 | -0.6 | |
| 4428 | Gabe Jacobs | G | 6-1 | 1 | Returning | North Florida | 7 | -3.5 | -0.6 |
| 4569 | Arden Begaj | F | 7-0 | 0 | Other newcomer | 11 | -3.0 | -0.8 | |
| 4684 | Taylor Thompson | G | 5-11 | 1 | Returning | North Florida | 6 | -4.2 | -0.7 |
| 4733 | Nestor Dyachok | F | 6-9 | 3 | Returning | North Florida | 14 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
| 4743 | Trey Cady | F | 6-8 | 1 | Returning | North Florida | 12 | -3.2 | -1.0 |
| 5083 | BJ Plummer | F | 6-6 | 1 | Returning | North Florida | 21 | -3.5 | -1.8 |
| 5154 | Dante Oliver | G | 6-5 | 2 | Returning | North Florida | 11 | -5.3 | -1.5 |
A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.
Schedule
| Date | Opponent | Proj. margin | Win prob. | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tue Nov 03 | at |  California Baptist #157 | -12.0 | 17% | |
| Fri Nov 06 | at |  UCLA #28 | -23.9 | 3% | |
| Mon Nov 09 | at |  Miami #18 | -26.0 | 2% | |
| Sat Nov 14 | vs |  The Citadel #345 | +7.0 | 72% | |
| Sat Nov 21 | vs |  Little Rock #320 | +5.3 | 67% | |
| Mon Nov 23 | vs |  Central Arkansas #181 | -0.2 | 49% | |
| Sat Nov 28 | at |  Columbia #169 | -11.7 | 17% | |
| Thu Dec 03 | vs |  South Dakota #322 | +5.6 | 67% | |
| Sat Dec 12 | at | South Dakota #322 | -6.6 | 30% | |
| Wed Dec 16 | vs |  Charleston Southern #276 | +3.2 | 60% | |
| Sat Dec 19 | at |  UT Arlington #211 | -10.2 | 20% | |
| Mon Dec 21 | at |  Texas A&M #31 | -24.6 | 3% | |
| Tue Dec 29 | at |  Georgia #32 | -25.1 | 2% | |
| Thu Dec 31 | at |  Abilene Christian #192 | -10.8 | 19% | |
| Sat Jan 02 | at |  Tarleton State #257 | -9.5 | 22% | |
| Thu Jan 07 | vs |  Bellarmine #305 | conf | +1.1 | 54% |
| Sat Jan 09 | vs |  Lipscomb #118 | conf | -6.3 | 31% |
| Thu Jan 14 | at |  West Florida #304 | conf | -3.9 | 38% |
| Sat Jan 16 | at |  Queens University #142 | conf | -10.1 | 21% |
| Sat Jan 23 | at |  Jacksonville #253 | conf | -6.3 | 30% |
| Thu Jan 28 | vs |  Stetson #311 | conf | +1.5 | 55% |
| Sat Jan 30 | vs |  Florida Gulf Coast #299 | conf | +0.8 | 53% |
| Thu Feb 04 | at | Lipscomb #118 | conf | -11.5 | 18% |
| Sat Feb 06 | at | Bellarmine #305 | conf | -3.6 | 38% |
| Thu Feb 11 | vs | Queens University #142 | conf | -5.1 | 34% |
| Sat Feb 13 | vs | West Florida #304 | conf | +1.1 | 53% |
| Sat Feb 20 | vs | Jacksonville #253 | conf | -1.0 | 47% |
| Thu Feb 25 | at | Florida Gulf Coast #299 | conf | -3.2 | 40% |
| Sat Feb 27 | at | Stetson #311 | conf | -3.1 | 40% |
Projected margin is from North Florida's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.