Roster Math

Teams › American · Compare Temple with another team

Temple

Temple returns 35% of last season's minutes and rates #145 on offense and #180 on defense of 365 teams. 80% range: -6.4 to +8.3.

+1.0
Rating · #149 of 365
+0.9
Offense · #145
+0.1
Defense · #180
-6.4 to +8.3
80% range
<1%
Chance of top 25
0%
Chance of No. 1
14-14
Projected record · 9 to 20 wins
9-9
Projected in American · 5 to 13 wins

Why we have them here

Temple's preseason projection of +1.0 (No. 149 of 365) starts from the roster: its players' ratings, weighted by projected minutes, add up to a roll-up worth +1.0, about the +0.8 typical of teams ranked near it. Last season's rating (No. 182 at the end of 2025-26) adds +0.1, about its neighbours' +0.1; the program's level two and three seasons back and the roster's experience and shape add -0.4. It returns 35% of last season's minutes, less than teams ranked near it (51%). The projection leans most on Gavin Griffiths (+2.9), Jordan Marsh (+2.1) and Edwin Suarez Jr. (+0.4); the newcomer who matters most is Jordan Marsh, a transfer from USC, at +2.1. Its 80% range, -6.4 to +8.3, is about as wide as that of teams ranked near it.

Generated from the published projection's own terms, not written by hand. "Teams ranked near it" are the thirty nearest in the preseason order. Preseason projection frozen 2026-10-23; how the projection is built.

Roster

Returning 30% · Transfer 55% · Freshman 4% · Other newcomer 11%

Gavin Griffiths+2.9
Jordan Marsh+2.1
Edwin Suarez Jr.+0.4
Masiah Gilyard+0.3
Dez White+0.2
Jason Drake-0.2
Olin Chamberlain Jr.-0.2
Cam Wallace-0.2
CJ Hines-0.2
Connor Gal-0.2
Cam Scott-0.3
Derrick Morton-Rivera-0.3
Sir Issac Herron-0.6
Baboucarr Njie-0.8
Christian Beam-1.0
RankPlayerPosHtD1 yrsGroupFromMPGRatingContrib.
313Gavin GriffithsG6-73ReturningTemple29+4.0+2.9
400Jordan MarshG5-113TransferUSC19+4.2+2.1
1237Masiah GilyardG6-32ReturningTemple18+0.8+0.3
1238Edwin Suarez Jr.F6-61TransferWeber State20+0.7+0.4
1384Dez WhiteG6-23TransferOregon State25+0.3+0.2
2374Cam WallaceG6-41ReturningTemple8-1.0-0.2
2514Olin Chamberlain Jr.F6-00Other newcomer5-1.4-0.2
2524Jason DrakeF6-14Other newcomer5-1.4-0.2
2602CJ HinesF6-23Other newcomer5-1.5-0.2
2808Connor GalG6-43ReturningTemple5-1.7-0.2
2815Derrick Morton-RiveraG6-30FreshmanHigh school8-1.4-0.3
2923Cam ScottF6-62Other newcomer6-1.7-0.3
3781Baboucarr NjieF6-62TransferUTSA23-1.3-0.8
3940Sir Issac HerronF6-105TransferLouisiana Tech11-2.0-0.6
4776Christian BeamC7-11TransferGeorgia State12-3.3-1.0

A player's rating is points per 100 possessions better than an average Division I player while he is on the floor. Contribution weights it by the share of a rotation slot he is projected to play, so a star on the bench and a role player who never sits both read right. Rank is among all 5,249 rated players. MPG is the projected share of a rotation slot times 40. "From" is last season's team. The bars are contribution, the player's rating times his projected share; their sum is the roll-up the projection starts from.

Schedule

DateOpponentProj. marginWin prob.
Mon Nov 02vsCentral Connecticut #316+10.681%
Sun Nov 08NRichmond #136-0.548%
Wed Nov 11vsCharleston #141+4.765%
Sun Nov 15atLa Salle #218-3.638%
Fri Nov 20NMiddle Tennessee #127-1.146%
Tue Dec 01vsVillanova #24-5.931%
Sat Dec 12NSt. Bonaventure #126-1.146%
Wed Dec 16vsDartmouth #290+10.079%
Sat Dec 19vsWright State #165+5.567%
Tue Dec 22atPrinceton #164-4.535%
Wed Dec 30atRice #262conf+1.756%
Sat Jan 02vsUTSA #284conf+6.671%
Tue Jan 05vsUAB #158conf+2.357%
Sun Jan 10atCharlotte #131conf-3.040%
Thu Jan 14vsSouth Florida #83conf-2.741%
Sun Jan 17vsRice #262conf+5.668%
Wed Jan 20atTulane #250conf+0.552%
Thu Jan 28vsTulsa #82conf-2.642%
Sun Jan 31atUAB #158conf-1.645%
Thu Feb 04atNorth Texas #135conf-2.741%
Sun Feb 07vsEast Carolina #182conf+3.260%
Wed Feb 10atFlorida Atlantic #122conf-4.436%
Sat Feb 13atSouth Florida #83conf-7.827%
Sun Feb 21vsWichita State #62conf-3.937%
Wed Feb 24vsTulane #250conf+5.266%
Sat Feb 27atEast Carolina #182conf-0.947%
Thu Mar 04vsMemphis #100conf-0.847%
Sun Mar 07atUTSA #284conf+2.959%

Projected margin is from Temple's side, with home court where the game is not neutral (N). Games are the schedule as posted; tournaments and late additions appear as they are listed. Predictions are as of 2026-10-26 and reflect the roster as the model has it on that date.